Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Estrela were slight favourites.
Academico Viseu were the stronger side on L90 Strength (29 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Estrela had 5.9 days of rest, Academico Viseu 7.8 and had to travel 240 km.
Away travel240 kmRest days5.9 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Estrela45%
Draw24%
Academico Viseu31%
Estrela39%
Draw26%
Academico Viseu35%
Estrela45%
Draw24%
Academico Viseu31%
Estrela37%
Draw25%
Academico Viseu38%
Estrela45%
Draw24%
Academico Viseu31%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
RefereeAndré Narciso
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 47
Team strength
Estrela
Academico Viseu
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
24
AttackIn forecast
28
27
DefenceIn forecast
31
58
Form indexContext
38
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAcademico Viseu
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaAcademico Viseu
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.81
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
12.50
ShotsContext
9.50
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
39%
On target shareContext
32%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
71%
Box shareContext
58%
19%
ConversionContext
12%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.00
Shots allowedContext
18.00
5.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
2.17
BlocksContext
4.67
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.17
61%
Save rateContext
71%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
377
PassesContext
395
313
Accurate passesContext
324
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.50
FoulsContext
13.33
12.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
90%
Scored inContext
67%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
10.60
ShotsContext
9.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
38%
On target shareContext
32%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
71%
Box shareContext
58%
18%
ConversionContext
12%
1.20
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.30
Shots allowedContext
18.00
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
2.80
BlocksContext
4.67
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.17
62%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
342
PassesContext
395
275
Accurate passesContext
324
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.40
FoulsContext
13.33
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
DWDWD
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km584 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 9 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +3.2 vs expected
Academico Viseu
LDLWW
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel240 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 7 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Academico Viseu |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Sep | 7.8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 240 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 584 km | 227 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.2 | 20.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
4Bernardo Schappo
5S. Leković
21M. Scholze
39G. Doue
78Santiago Serra
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
Academico Viseu
Confirmed XI
98Ewerton(G)
57G. Costa
2N. Michelis
41A. Correia
75Robinho
7Luís Silva
8C. Kahraman
47L. Gohi
14S. Messeguem
31João Guilherme
33André Clóvis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Academico Viseu
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Academico Viseu+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Academico Viseu · Away
1.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Academico Viseu | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 2.67 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 83% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Estrela | Academico Viseu | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.80 | 2.67 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 67% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Academico Viseu | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 2.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.16 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.66 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Estrela | Academico Viseu | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 2.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 8.16 | 8.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.66 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · André Narciso 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.09league 4.09
Red cards0.21league 0.21
Cards 5+62%league 42%
Fouls28.4league 24.9
Penalties0.28league 0.35
Home wins53%league 40%
Estrela1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L5 Nov 23A · Sporting CP2–31
Academico ViseuNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela6 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Academico Viseu6 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
2
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
Academico Viseu6 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
