Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Estrela had 7 days of rest, Arouca 5.9 and had to travel 256 km.
Away travel256 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Estrela39%
Draw28%
Arouca33%
Estrela39%
Draw27%
Arouca34%
Estrela39%
Draw28%
Arouca33%
Estrela32%
Draw28%
Arouca40%
Estrela39%
Draw27%
Arouca34%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 7.1
- Penalties per match 0.78
- Matches 9
Team strength
Estrela
Arouca
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
28
27
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaArouca
1.08
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.83
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
0.56
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.93
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
50%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.33
ShotsContext
8.33
3.91
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.82
32%
On target shareContext
31%
5.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.18
48%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
12.17
Shots allowedContext
14.33
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.42
BlocksContext
3.64
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.83
71%
Save rateContext
52%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
345
PassesContext
376
277
Accurate passesContext
309
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.49
13.25
FoulsContext
14.33
16.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.83
2.42
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.70
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
0.53
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.92
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
50%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.20
ShotsContext
8.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
32%
On target shareContext
31%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
50%
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.30
BlocksContext
3.56
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
67%
Save rateContext
54%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
362
PassesContext
368
294
Accurate passesContext
300
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.50
13.30
FoulsContext
15.20
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km15 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel256 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 256 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 15 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
10I. Stoica
6Oumar Ngom
19Paulo Moreira
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
11Jovane Cabral
98Kikas
99A. Marcus
Arouca
Confirmed XI
58N. Mantl(G)
44A. Dante
5B. Popović
66Omar Fayed
78Alex Pinto
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
11Miguel Puche
7N. Djouahra
23D. Nandin
19A. Trezza
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.33
Arouca · Away
0.80points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 3.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | L 0–4 A | L 0–6 A |
| Nacional | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 5–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Rio Ave | L 1–2 H | D 3–3 H |
| AVS | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Benfica | L 0–1 H | L 0–5 A |
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | L 3–4 A |
| Points | 8 of 24 · 1.00 per game | 8 of 24 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Estrela wins1 draws2 Arouca wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 19 Apr 2025Arouca1–0Estrela
- 9 Dec 2024Estrela2–1Arouca
- 5 May 2024Arouca0–0Estrela
- 28 Dec 2023Estrela1–4Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.08 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 3.92 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 67% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 58% | |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Estrela | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.55 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.64 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.19 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 55% 6/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.58 | 2.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 5.58 | 5.00 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 9/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Estrela | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.13 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 9.56 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.60 | 5.60 | 5.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.11league 5.21
Red cards1.00league 0.28
Cards 5+78%league 65%
Fouls28.8league 27.6
Penalties0.78league 0.48
Home wins22%league 35%
EstrelaNo previous matches with this referee.
Arouca1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- W20 Sep 25A · Nacional2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela11 games · scored 8 · conceded 15
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
7
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
76-90
Arouca11 games · scored 13 · conceded 29
2
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
6
76-90
Estrela9 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Arouca9 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
