Primeira Liga Gameweek 7 Sat, Sep 27 · 18:00 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora
Estrela 14th · 4 pts · 6 played
3–0Full time
AVS 18th · 1 pts · 6 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Estrela were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Estrela had 6.1 days of rest, AVS 7 and had to travel.

Rest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Estrela45%
Draw28%
AVS27%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.05
Estrela46%
Draw26%
AVS27%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15
Estrela45%
Draw28%
AVS27%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.05
Estrela38%
Draw29%
AVS33%
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.18
Estrela46%
Draw26%
AVS27%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15
Over 2.5 45% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Malheiro
  • Cards per match 5.8
  • Penalties per match 0.45
  • Matches 47

Team strength

EstrelaAVS
16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 14
20 Current StrengthIn forecast 16
24 AttackIn forecast 17
27 DefenceIn forecast 21
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—
Defense risk—

AVS

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

EstrelaAVS
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33
1.15 xGVia Att/Def 0.85
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
-0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
33% Scored inContext 50%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.67 ShotsContext 9.67
3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.17
27% On target shareContext 22%
5.33 Shots in the boxContext 5.60
48% Box shareContext 52%
5% ConversionContext 7%
2.33 OffsidesContext 2.75
11.00 Shots allowedContext 14.00
3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67
3.17 BlocksContext 3.17
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17
90% Save rateContext 46%
47% PossessionIn forecast 42%
308 PassesContext 310
241 Accurate passesContext 233
78% Pass accuracyContext 75%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.61
12.67 FoulsContext 15.00
16.17 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.10 xGVia Att/Def 0.86
1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55
-0.60 Goals minus xGContext -0.26
30% Scored inContext 50%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
10.30 ShotsContext 10.60
3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.60
29% On target shareContext 25%
5.40 Shots in the boxContext 6.44
52% Box shareContext 55%
5% ConversionContext 6%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.13
12.30 Shots allowedContext 14.60
3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30
3.60 BlocksContext 3.50
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
76% Save rateContext 53%
47% PossessionIn forecast 44%
301 PassesContext 308
229 Accurate passesContext 232
76% Pass accuracyContext 76%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.63
12.80 FoulsContext 15.70
15.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km439 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
AVS
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Estrela AVS
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 20 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways439 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.97

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI
3-4-3
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
79A. Chernev 14Bernardo Schappo 30Luan Patrick
21Guilherme Montóia 18Jorge Meireles 19Paulo Moreira 55Sidny Lopes Cabral
10I. Stoica 98Kikas 99A. Marcus
AVS Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
93Simão(G)
24Kiki 3Paulo Vitor 42C. Devenish 2Diogo Spencer
15Jaume Grau 27Ángel Algobia
10Rafael Barbosa 8Pedro Lima 11B. Akinsola
7Tómané

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off
AVS Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Estrela+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • AVS+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
0.67
Conceded
1.67
AVS · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentEstrelaAVS
Benfica L 0–1 H L 0–3 H
Estoril D 1–1 A L 1–3 A
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Estrela wins1 draws1 AVS wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 11 May 2025Estrela0–1AVS
  • 28 Dec 2024AVS1–1Estrela

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

EstrelaAVSForecast
Scored per game 0.500.67
Conceded per game 1.002.33
Match goals 1.503.00 2.49
Over 1.5 50%83%
Over 2.5 17%67% 45%
Over 3.5 17%50%
Both teams scored 33%50% 50%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 67%50%
Games66
EstrelaAVSForecast
Scored per game 0.500.67
Conceded per game 1.002.33
Match goals 1.503.00 2.49
Over 1.5 50%83%
Over 2.5 17%67% 45%
Over 3.5 17%50%
Both teams scored 33%50% 50%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 67%50%
Games66

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

EstrelaAVSLeague
Corners
Corners won4.004.00
Corners conceded3.005.20
Match total7.009.208.98
Over 8.520% 1/560% 3/5
Over 9.50% 0/540% 2/5
Over 10.50% 0/540% 2/5
Cards
Cards2.671.83
Opponent cards3.003.00
Match total5.674.835.12
Over 3.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 4.567% 4/667% 4/6
EstrelaAVSLeague
Corners
Corners won3.674.00
Corners conceded4.445.00
Match total8.119.008.98
Over 8.522% 2/956% 5/9
Over 9.511% 1/933% 3/9
Over 10.511% 1/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards2.902.60
Opponent cards2.902.40
Match total5.805.005.12
Over 3.580% 8/1070% 7/10
Over 4.560% 6/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Malheiro Portugal · 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.53league 5.09
Red cards0.30league 0.19
Cards 5+66%league 61%
Fouls29.0league 28.2
Penalties0.45league 0.44
Home wins49%league 35%
Estrela5 with this referee
Record1-0-4 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1
  • W6 Apr 25A · Nacional1–02
  • L9 Feb 25A · Casa Pia0–14
  • L24 Aug 24A · Benfica0–13
  • L2 Mar 24A · SC Braga0–31
  • L29 Jan 24H · Benfica1–42
AVS2 with this referee
Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1
  • L1 Feb 25A · Guimaraes0–25
  • D4 Jan 25A · Moreirense1–15

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Estrela6 games · scored 3 · conceded 6
0-15
16-30
1 4 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
1 76-90
AVS6 games · scored 4 · conceded 14
2 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
2 1 76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
2 0-15
2 16-30
2 4 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
AVS10 games · scored 6 · conceded 25
3 0-15
1 6 16-30
1 3 31-45
5 46-60
1 5 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Primeira Liga

View all fixtures →
Benfica GIL Vicente 21 Moreirense Casa Pia 21 Santa Clara Tondela 12 Estrela AVS 30 Estoril Sporting CP 01 Alverca Guimaraes 20 SC Braga Nacional 01 Famalicao Rio Ave 00 Arouca FC Porto 04