Estrela vs FC Porto – 26 Apr 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 31 Sun, Apr 26 · 18:00 Estádio José Gomes, Amadora

Estrela 15th · 28 pts · 30 played LWLLL

1–2Full time

FC Porto 1st · 79 pts · 30 played WWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Estrela had 7.1 days of rest, FC Porto 6.9 and had to travel 271 km.

Away travel271 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 3

Estrela14%

Draw22%

FC Porto64%

Expected goals 0.78 – 1.91

Estrela10%

Draw18%

FC Porto72%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.33

Estrela14%

Draw22%

FC Porto64%

Expected goals 0.78 – 1.91

Estrela10%

Draw19%

FC Porto70%

Expected goals 0.69 – 2.14

Estrela14%

Draw22%

FC Porto64%

Expected goals 0.82 – 2.00

Over 2.5 50% Both score 47% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amadora)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalHelder Filipe Claudio Carvalho

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.58
Matches 12

Team strength

Estrela

FC Porto

17 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

20 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

24 AttackIn forecast 74

27 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Estrela

Attack—

Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Estrela

FC Porto

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.03

1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.47

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.80

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.55

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

53% Scored inContext 97%

23% Clean sheetsContext 63%

10.90 ShotsContext 14.27

3.69 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

33% On target shareContext 37%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.47

51% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.23 OffsidesContext 2.25

13.00 Shots allowedContext 8.90

4.47 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.33

4.04 BlocksContext 3.25

3.07 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

66% Save rateContext 86%

48% PossessionIn forecast 55%

351 PassesContext 442

284 Accurate passesContext 375

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.96

13.77 FoulsContext 13.57

14.83 Fouls sufferedContext 12.03

2.47 Yellow cardsContext 2.37

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.86

-0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

50% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.20 ShotsContext 13.90

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

33% On target shareContext 37%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

58% Box shareContext 59%

7% ConversionContext 14%

2.70 OffsidesContext 1.88

13.60 Shots allowedContext 10.80

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

5.22 BlocksContext 3.57

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

68% Save rateContext 85%

51% PossessionIn forecast 46%

378 PassesContext 388

312 Accurate passesContext 317

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.91

12.80 FoulsContext 12.00

14.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 3.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Estrela

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km513 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FC Porto

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel271 km3,414 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Estrela	FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Apr	6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 19 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	271 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	513 km	3,414 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Estrela Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22David Grilo(G)

24B. Langa 83Otávio 4S. Leković 21M. Scholze

6Kevin Höög Jansson 39G. Doue

8Robinho 10I. Stoica 99A. Marcus

9Rodrigo Pinho

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

4J. Kiwior 5J. Bednarek 3Thiago Silva 20Alberto Baio

10Gabri Veiga 13P. Rosario 8V. Froholdt

77O. Pietuszewski 27D. Gül 11Pepê

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Estrela Absences are shown before kick-off

FC Porto Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Estrela+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Porto+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Estrela · Home 1.13points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 4-5-6
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.47

FC Porto · Away 2.67points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 13-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.53

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Estrela	FC Porto
Arouca	L 0–1 AW 3–1 H	W 3–1 HW 4–0 A
Sporting CP	L 0–1 HL 0–4 A	D 1–1 HW 2–1 A
Nacional	L 0–2 AD 1–1 H	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Casa Pia	W 4–0 HW 5–3 A	L 1–2 AW 4–0 H
Rio Ave	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 HW 3–0 A
GIL Vicente	D 2–2 HL 0–2 A	W 3–0 HW 2–0 A
AVS	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
Tondela	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	W 2–0 HW 2–0 A
Guimaraes	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H
Santa Clara	W 1–0 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 A
Alverca	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	W 3–0 A
Benfica	L 0–4 AL 0–1 H	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Estoril	L 0–5 HD 1–1 A	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
SC Braga	D 3–3 H	W 2–1 AW 2–1 H
Famalicao	W 3–2 A	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A
Moreirense	D 0–0 H	W 3–0 HW 2–1 A
Points	28 of 87 · 0.97 per game	76 of 87 · 2.62 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

1 Estrela wins0 draws4 FC Porto wins

Goals per game0.60 – 1.60 Over 2.520% Both scored20% Clean sheets20% · 60%

15 Dec 2025FC Porto3–1Estrela
26 Apr 2025Estrela2–0FC Porto
16 Dec 2024FC Porto2–0Estrela
17 Feb 2024FC Porto2–0Estrela
15 Sep 2023Estrela0–1FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Estrela	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.03
Conceded per game	1.63	0.47
Match goals	2.73	2.50	2.69
Over 1.5	73%	73%
Over 2.5	50%	57%	50%
Over 3.5	37%	23%
Both teams scored	43%	37%	47%
Clean sheets	23%	63%
Failed to score	47%	3%
Games	30	30

	Estrela	FC Porto	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.90
Conceded per game	1.20	0.90
Match goals	2.10	2.80	2.69
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	50%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	47%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	50%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Estrela	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.19
Corners conceded	5.35	3.31
Match total	9.35	8.50	9.36
Over 8.5	50% 13/26	50% 13/26
Over 9.5	42% 11/26	35% 9/26
Over 10.5	38% 10/26	23% 6/26
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.43
Opponent cards	2.73	3.00
Match total	5.33	5.43	5.06
Over 3.5	77% 23/30	80% 24/30
Over 4.5	70% 21/30	60% 18/30

	Estrela	FC Porto	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	3.78
Corners conceded	5.89	4.33
Match total	10.56	8.11	9.36
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	3.50
Opponent cards	2.80	2.80
Match total	5.10	6.30	5.06
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho Portugal · 12 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.50league 4.80

Red cards0.08league 0.23

Cards 5+25%league 57%

Fouls27.7league 26.8

Penalties0.58league 0.43

Home wins17%league 41%

Estrela3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

D28 Feb 26A · AVS0–01
D3 Jan 26H · SC Braga3–32
L16 Aug 25H · Benfica0–13

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.