Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Guimaraes were slight favourites.
Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 17). Estrela had 13.8 days of rest, Guimaraes 14.9 and had to travel 310 km.
Away travel310 kmRest days13.8 · 14.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
Estrela25%
Draw27%
Guimaraes49%
Estrela25%
Draw26%
Guimaraes49%
Estrela25%
Draw27%
Guimaraes49%
Estrela19%
Draw25%
Guimaraes56%
Estrela25%
Draw26%
Guimaraes49%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Nogueira
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 51
Team strength
Estrela
Guimaraes
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
24
AttackIn forecast
28
27
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaGuimaraes
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
50%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.75
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
28%
On target shareContext
26%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
44%
Box shareContext
49%
7%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.25
Shots allowedContext
11.75
2.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
3.50
BlocksContext
2.00
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
100%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
292
PassesContext
399
225
Accurate passesContext
326
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.68
13.50
FoulsContext
14.00
17.50
Fouls sufferedContext
17.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
30%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.50
ShotsContext
12.70
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
31%
On target shareContext
25%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
54%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.40
12.30
Shots allowedContext
11.00
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
3.80
BlocksContext
1.80
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
74%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
298
PassesContext
424
223
Accurate passesContext
352
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.30
FoulsContext
14.40
15.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,876 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Guimaraes
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel310 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 310 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,876 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
17Jefferson Encada
79A. Chernev
14Bernardo Schappo
30Luan Patrick
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
8Robinho
19Paulo Moreira
99A. Marcus
98Kikas
9Rodrigo Pinho
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
25Juan Castillo(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
26R. Abascal
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
16Beni
30Gonçalo Nogueira
11Gustavo Silva
88M. Nogueira
18Telmo Arcanjo
7Nélson Oliveira
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Guimaraes · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | Guimaraes |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Estrela wins1 draws3 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 16 Mar 2025Guimaraes2–0Estrela
- 27 Oct 2024Estrela2–2Guimaraes
- 21 Jan 2024Guimaraes3–0Estrela
- 13 Aug 2023Estrela0–1Guimaraes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Estrela | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 7.75 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 3.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 6.25 | 6.50 | 5.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 4/4 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Estrela | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 9.20 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 6.10 | 5.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Nogueira Portugal · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 5.02
Red cards0.27league 0.20
Cards 5+47%league 61%
Fouls25.4league 27.5
Penalties0.18league 0.32
Home wins45%league 37%
Estrela4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- D23 Feb 25H · Santa Clara0–03
- L16 Dec 24A · FC Porto0–23
- D5 May 24A · Arouca0–04
- L21 Jan 24A · Guimaraes0–32
Guimaraes7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D18 Jan 25H · Arouca2–21
- L7 Dec 24A · Benfica0–11
- W3 Nov 24H · Moreirense1–00
- W21 Jan 24H · Estrela3–01
- W1 Oct 23H · Estoril3–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela4 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
Guimaraes4 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
