Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rio Ave were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 17). Estrela had 21.2 days of rest, Rio Ave 20.1 and had to travel 292 km.
Away travel292 kmRest days21.2 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Estrela34%
Draw28%
Rio Ave37%
Estrela35%
Draw27%
Rio Ave38%
Estrela34%
Draw28%
Rio Ave37%
Estrela28%
Draw28%
Rio Ave44%
Estrela35%
Draw27%
Rio Ave38%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalLuís Godinho
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 74
Team strength
Estrela
Rio Ave
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
24
AttackIn forecast
18
27
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaRio Ave
0.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.63
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
-0.57
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
38%
Scored inContext
75%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.25
ShotsContext
10.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
31%
On target shareContext
44%
5.63
Shots in the boxContext
6.13
49%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.40
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.50
Shots allowedContext
17.13
3.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.13
3.50
BlocksContext
4.13
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
86%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
334
PassesContext
359
264
Accurate passesContext
293
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.50
FoulsContext
13.50
16.13
Fouls sufferedContext
14.75
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.60
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
30%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.70
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
30%
On target shareContext
45%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
50%
Box shareContext
67%
6%
ConversionContext
16%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.60
11.90
Shots allowedContext
15.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.50
BlocksContext
3.90
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
76%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
332
PassesContext
360
258
Accurate passesContext
294
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.00
FoulsContext
13.10
15.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
Rest21.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel292 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 21.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 20.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 292 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
40Renan Ribeiro(G)
83Otávio
79A. Chernev
30Luan Patrick
55Sidny Lopes Cabral
18Jorge Meireles
6Oumar Ngom
19Paulo Moreira
17Jefferson Encada
98Kikas
99A. Marcus
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
4J. Panzo
32J. Brabec
23F. Petrasso
3N. Athanasiou
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
17M. Vrousai
18D. Špikić
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Rio Ave · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Tondela | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Benfica | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Estrela wins2 draws1 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 5 May 2025Rio Ave2–0Estrela
- 23 Dec 2024Estrela1–0Rio Ave
- 14 Apr 2024Estrela2–2Rio Ave
- 2 Dec 2023Rio Ave1–1Estrela
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 63% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 63% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Estrela | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.75 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.63 | |
| Match goals | 1.75 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 63% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 63% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 63% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.71 | 7.75 | |
| Match total | 8.42 | 11.13 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 5.75 | 5.38 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 88% 7/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 6/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Estrela | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 7.30 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 11.00 | 9.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.80 | 5.41 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luís Godinho Portugal · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.95league 5.22
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+61%league 66%
Fouls29.2league 27.6
Penalties0.31league 0.45
Home wins41%league 36%
Estrela3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Feb 25A · Boavista1–02
- L11 May 24A · Vizela0–42
- D14 Apr 24H · Rio Ave2–22
Rio Ave4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L18 Jan 25H · Sporting CP0–31
- D14 Apr 24A · Estrela2–21
- W7 Jan 24H · Portimonense2–01
- L11 Sep 22H · SC Braga2–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Estrela8 games · scored 6 · conceded 8
0-15
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Rio Ave8 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 6 · conceded 13
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
