Estrela
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
SC Braga were slight favourites.
SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estrela. Estrela had 5.2 days of rest, SC Braga 5.1 and had to travel 319 km.
Away travel319 kmRest days5.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Estrela23%
Draw23%
SC Braga53%
Estrela19%
Draw22%
SC Braga58%
Estrela23%
Draw23%
SC Braga53%
Estrela18%
Draw21%
SC Braga61%
Estrela24%
Draw24%
SC Braga52%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Amadora)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Estrela
SC Braga
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
20
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
24
AttackIn forecast
42
27
DefenceIn forecast
59
50
Form indexContext
66
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EstrelaSC Braga
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.23
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.67
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
39%
On target shareContext
37%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
66%
Box shareContext
62%
20%
ConversionContext
13%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.33
13.25
Shots allowedContext
6.67
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
2.25
BlocksContext
1.33
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
62%
Save rateContext
57%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
359
PassesContext
598
294
Accurate passesContext
512
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.25
FoulsContext
15.33
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
70%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.00
ShotsContext
10.30
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
36%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
68%
Box shareContext
54%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
1.17
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.40
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.10
BlocksContext
2.78
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
62%
Save rateContext
62%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
323
PassesContext
535
256
Accurate passesContext
457
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.50
FoulsContext
12.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Estrela
DDWD
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,937 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 50 · 6 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Estrela |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 5.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 319 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,937 km | 599 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Estrela
Confirmed XI
24Léo Linck(G)
55Rafa Soares
5S. Leković
30Patrick Luan
21M. Scholze
78Santiago Serra
39G. Doue
10I. Stoica
14L. Zvonarek
99A. Marcus
37Leandro Antonetti
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
31Bernardo Fontes(G)
22Sergio Barcia
6Vitor Carvalho
14G. Lagerbielke
77Gabri Martínez
8João Moutinho
34D. Tıknaz
2Víctor Gómez
9Fran Navarro
10Pau Víctor
20M. Dorgeles
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Estrela
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Estrela+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Estrela · Home
1.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
SC Braga · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Estrela | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Estrela wins3 draws3 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.33 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 16 May 2026SC Braga2–2Estrela
- 3 Jan 2026Estrela3–3SC Braga
- 19 Jan 2025Estrela0–1SC Braga
- 11 Aug 2024SC Braga1–1Estrela
- 2 Mar 2024SC Braga3–0Estrela
- 28 Sep 2023Estrela2–4SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Estrela | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.25 | 2.67 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 67% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 3 |
| Estrela | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Estrela | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 4.67 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.75 | 5.34 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Estrela | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 6.90 | 8.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.60 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 10/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Estrela4 games · scored 9 · conceded 8
2
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
SC Braga2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Estrela10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
