Everton vs Brighton – 24 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 24 · 14:00 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 18th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–0Full time

Brighton 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Brighton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 66). Absences weigh more on Everton. Everton had 5.8 days of rest, Brighton 8 and had to travel 345 km.

Away travel345 kmRest days5.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Everton37%

Draw26%

Brighton37%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.42

Everton38%

Draw27%

Brighton34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.30

Everton38%

Draw27%

Brighton35%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.37

Everton30%

Draw26%

Brighton44%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.59

Everton37%

Draw27%

Brighton36%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.34

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

No weather data yet

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 117

Team strength

Everton

Brighton

66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

61 AttackIn forecast 87

66 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Brighton

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.90 ShotsContext 14.10

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.60

38% On target shareContext 40%

5.89 Shots in the boxContext 9.20

70% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 14%

2.83 OffsidesContext 1.78

13.60 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

4.40 BlocksContext 3.22

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

82% Save rateContext 61%

41% PossessionIn forecast 54%

350 PassesContext 466

282 Accurate passesContext 400

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.99

10.10 FoulsContext 11.40

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km207 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel345 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Aug	8Premier League 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	345 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	207 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

37J. Garner 5M. Keane 6J. Tarkowski 15J. O'Brien

27I. Gueye 42T. Iroegbunam

18J. Grealish 22K. Dewsbury-Hall 10I. Ndiaye

11T. Barry

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

29M. De Cuyper 5L. Dunk 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

26Y. Ayari 17C. Baleba

22K. Mitoma 33M. O'Riley 11Y. Minteh

18D. Welbeck

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton-1.0 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Brighton+1.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home No home games yet this season.

Brighton · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Everton wins3 draws3 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.70 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 20%

25 Jan 2025Brighton0–1Everton
17 Aug 2024Everton0–3Brighton
24 Feb 2024Brighton1–1Everton
4 Nov 2023Everton1–1Brighton
8 May 2023Brighton1–5Everton
3 Jan 2023Everton1–4Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.84
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Everton	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	2.84
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	4.00
Corners conceded	7.00	3.00
Match total	9.00	7.00	9.63
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	3.00
Opponent cards	0.00	3.00
Match total	2.00	6.00	3.13
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Everton	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.00
Corners conceded	6.60	3.56
Match total	10.10	8.56	9.63
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.00	2.40
Match total	3.30	4.30	3.13
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.87league 3.00

Red cards0.13league 0.13

Cards 5+40%league 31%

Fouls21.0league 21.1

Penalties0.19league 0.25

Home wins50%league 56%

Everton16 with this referee

Record4-2-10 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

D8 Mar 25A · Wolves1–12
D9 Nov 24A · West Ham0–02
L31 Aug 24H · Bournemouth2–32
W11 May 24H · Sheffield Utd1–01
L23 Dec 23A · Tottenham1–24

Brighton13 with this referee

Record7-4-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2 Pens for · against3 · 1 Reds3

L2 Apr 25H · Aston Villa0–32
D8 Dec 24A · Leicester2–22
W23 Nov 24A · Bournemouth2–14
W18 Feb 24A · Sheffield Utd5–04
W2 Sep 23H · Newcastle3–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.