Everton vs Ipswich – 19 Sep 2026

Premier League Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 19 · 15:00 Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside

Everton 9th · 6 pts · 4 played WDDD

1–0Full time

Ipswich 10th · 6 pts · 4 played WLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Everton were slight favourites.

Everton were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 48). Everton had 6.9 days of rest, Ipswich 7 and had to travel 316 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel316 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Everton59%

Draw21%

Ipswich19%

Expected goals 2.01 – 1.06

Everton57%

Draw23%

Ipswich20%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.98

Everton59%

Draw22%

Ipswich20%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.07

Everton51%

Draw23%

Ipswich25%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.19

Everton60%

Draw21%

Ipswich19%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.07

Over 2.5 59% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool, Merseyside)

19°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 25 km/h
Humidity 53%

RefereeStuart Attwell

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 144

Team strength

Everton

Ipswich

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

61 AttackIn forecast 59

66 DefenceIn forecast 50

68 Form indexContext 68

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Everton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ipswich

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Everton

Ipswich

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

75% Scored inContext 75%

50% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.75 ShotsContext 11.25

5.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

36% On target shareContext 42%

10.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

69% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 16%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.00 Shots allowedContext 16.25

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

6.00 BlocksContext 4.75

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

79% Save rateContext 58%

42% PossessionIn forecast 44%

382 PassesContext 391

316 Accurate passesContext 321

83% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.68

8.50 FoulsContext 11.50

12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.57

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.42

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 12.70

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

35% On target shareContext 38%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

71% Box shareContext 65%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.25

14.90 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

6.00 BlocksContext 4.50

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

62% Save rateContext 64%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

369 PassesContext 420

298 Accurate passesContext 344

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.87

11.30 FoulsContext 10.90

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Everton WDDD

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km573 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 68 · 6 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

D12 SepA · Tottenham0–01.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Manchester United2–21.3 xPts
D29 AugA · Bournemouth1–10.9 xPts
W22 AugH · Crystal Palace2–01.5 xPts

Ipswich WLLW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel316 km215 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 68 · 6 pts vs 3.9 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected

W12 SepA · Crystal Palace3–20.8 xPts
L4 SepH · Liverpool0–20.9 xPts
L30 AugA · Manchester United2–50.6 xPts
W22 AugH · Sunderland2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Everton	Ipswich
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep	7Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	316 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	573 km	215 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	22	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Everton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Pickford(G)

16V. Mykolenko 4J. Branthwaite 6J. Tarkowski 2A. Maitland-Niles

37J. Garner 45H. Armstrong

10J. Grealish 8K. Dewsbury-Hall 22B. Johnson

11T. Barry

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Ipswich Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

28C. Walton(G)

3L. Davis 26D. O'Shea 6I. Diop 42A. Ouattara

25E. Palacios 23S. Lukić

47J. Clarke 10J. Enciso 7I. Fatawu

19Emersonn

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Everton Absences are shown before kick-off

Ipswich Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Everton+0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Ipswich-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Everton · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Ipswich · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 3.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Everton	Ipswich
Manchester United	D 2–2 H	L 2–5 A
Crystal Palace	W 2–0 H	W 3–2 A
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Everton wins1 draws0 Ipswich wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

3 May 2025Everton2–2Ipswich
19 Oct 2024Ipswich0–2Everton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Everton	Ipswich	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.75
Conceded per game	0.75	2.50
Match goals	2.00	4.25	3.07
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	75%	59%
Over 3.5	25%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

	Everton	Ipswich	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.75
Conceded per game	1.60	2.50
Match goals	2.90	4.25	3.07
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	75%	59%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	75%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	20%	25%
Games	10	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Everton	Ipswich	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	3.50
Corners conceded	6.00	5.50
Match total	11.67	9.00	9.44
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Over 10.5	67% 2/3	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	1.75	1.75
Opponent cards	1.75	2.25
Match total	3.50	4.00	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4

	Everton	Ipswich	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	4.80
Corners conceded	5.56	3.80
Match total	10.78	8.60	9.44
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.00
Opponent cards	1.40	1.90
Match total	3.80	3.90	4.00
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stuart Attwell 144 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.05league 3.81

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+46%league 38%

Fouls21.2league 23.2

Penalties0.21league 0.19

Home wins47%league 33%

Everton20 with this referee

Record7-2-11 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.1 Pens for · against0 · 1

L25 Apr 26A · West Ham1–24
W28 Feb 26A · Newcastle3–23
W7 Feb 26A · Fulham2–15
W24 Aug 25H · Brighton2–04
D8 Mar 25A · Wolves1–12

Ipswich4 with this referee

Record1-2-1 Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

D13 Apr 25A · Chelsea2–22
L21 Dec 24H · Newcastle0–42
D29 Sep 24H · Aston Villa2–24
W29 Mar 24A · Blackburn1–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.