Excelsior vs Ajax – 1 Feb 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Feb 1 · 11:15 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 13th · 22 pts · 20 played WLDDD

First leg2–1 2–2Full time

Ajax 4th · 37 pts · 20 played WDWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax were slight favourites.

Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Excelsior had 7.6 days of rest, Ajax 7.8 and had to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days7.6 · 7.8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Excelsior20%

Draw23%

Ajax56%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.90

Excelsior23%

Draw25%

Ajax52%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.71

Excelsior20%

Draw23%

Ajax57%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.91

Excelsior15%

Draw21%

Ajax64%

Expected goals 0.94 – 2.13

Excelsior21%

Draw24%

Ajax55%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.79

Over 2.5 57% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsMarc Nagtegaal

Cards per match 2.7
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 43

Team strength

Excelsior

Ajax

18 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

21 AttackIn forecast 66

18 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Ajax

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

Ajax

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.95

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.66

1.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

75% Scored inContext 95%

20% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.30 ShotsContext 15.30

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.65

33% On target shareContext 44%

7.45 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

65% Box shareContext 72%

9% ConversionContext 13%

1.23 OffsidesContext 1.75

15.90 Shots allowedContext 13.20

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.89

4.75 BlocksContext 4.22

4.15 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.58

69% Save rateContext 73%

45% PossessionIn forecast 58%

378 PassesContext 529

294 Accurate passesContext 459

78% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.76 Team ratingContext 7.04

12.55 FoulsContext 10.40

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.85

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

1.87 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.56

80% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.90 ShotsContext 16.50

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.10

34% On target shareContext 43%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

71% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 14%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.40

14.90 Shots allowedContext 14.20

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

4.70 BlocksContext 4.50

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

70% Save rateContext 76%

46% PossessionIn forecast 58%

395 PassesContext 533

310 Accurate passesContext 465

79% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.80 FoulsContext 10.00

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior

Rest7.6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km499 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Ajax

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel57 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Ajax
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Jan	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	499 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 3R. Meissen 4C. Widell 2Ilias Bronkhorst

20L. Hartjes

7E. Hansson 10N. Naujoks 23I. Yegoian 30D. Sanches Fernandes

33Jerolldino Bergraaf

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Ajax Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1V. Jaroš(G)

24J. Mokio 15Y. Baas 37J. Šutalo 3A. Gaaei

48Sean Steur 6Y. Regeer 18D. Klaassen

11M. Godts 9K. Dolberg 43Rayane Bounida

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Ajax Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior+0.0 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Ajax-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 1.30points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-1-5
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.20

Ajax · Away 1.56points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-1
Scored: 2.22
Conceded: 1.89

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	Ajax
Twente	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 3–2 A
AZ Alkmaar	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 H
Telstar	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 3–2 AW 2–0 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
PEC Zwolle	W 2–1 H	W 3–1 H
Groningen	L 0–2 H	W 2–0 H
NAC Breda	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
Heracles	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	W 1–0 H	W 3–1 A
Heerenveen	L 1–2 A	D 1–1 H
FC Volendam	W 2–1 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 H	D 3–3 A
Utrecht	L 1–4 A	L 1–2 A
Feyenoord	L 1–2 H	W 2–0 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–5 A	D 2–2 A
Points	19 of 57 · 1.00 per game	37 of 57 · 1.95 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Excelsior wins1 draws0 Ajax wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

22 Nov 2025Ajax1–2Excelsior
19 Aug 2023Excelsior2–2Ajax

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.95
Conceded per game	1.75	1.30
Match goals	2.75	3.25	2.95
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	25%	45%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Failed to score	25%	5%
Games	20	20

	Excelsior	Ajax	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.90
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	2.80	3.10	2.95
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	5.00
Corners conceded	5.50	5.16
Match total	9.60	10.16	10.25
Over 8.5	65% 13/20	58% 11/19
Over 9.5	40% 8/20	42% 8/19
Over 10.5	30% 6/20	37% 7/19
Cards
Cards	1.65	1.90
Opponent cards	1.40	1.80
Match total	3.05	3.70	3.57
Over 3.5	35% 7/20	45% 9/20
Over 4.5	25% 5/20	35% 7/20

	Excelsior	Ajax	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	3.89
Corners conceded	6.50	5.56
Match total	10.40	9.45	10.25
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.70
Opponent cards	1.40	2.30
Match total	3.20	4.00	3.57
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marc Nagtegaal Netherlands · 43 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.56league 3.36

Red cards0.09league 0.20

Cards 5+23%league 31%

Fouls20.0league 21.7

Penalties0.23league 0.27

Home wins58%league 45%

Excelsior4 with this referee

Record1-1-2 Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W20 Sep 25A · FC Volendam2–12
L25 Feb 24H · Vitesse1–20
L13 Jan 24A · PSV Eindhoven1–30
D12 Nov 23A · Utrecht2–21

Ajax7 with this referee

Record5-1-1 Cards · opp.0.9 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 1

W27 Sep 25H · NAC Breda2–12
W24 Aug 25H · Heracles2–00
W13 Apr 25A · Willem II2–10
W16 Feb 25H · Heracles4–00
L8 Dec 24A · AZ Alkmaar1–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.