Excelsior vs Fortuna Sittard

Eredivisie Gameweek 20 Fri, Jan 22 · 19:00 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played DLDLL

VS— Compare

Fortuna Sittard 6th · 15 pts · 9 played WLWDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel141 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real contextStrength only

Excelsior—%

Draw—%

Fortuna Sittard—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 7 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fortuna Sittard 6 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Excelsior

Fortuna Sittard

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

21 AttackIn forecast 19

18 DefenceIn forecast 19

11 Form indexContext 45

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fortuna Sittard

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

Fortuna Sittard

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.39

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.85

89% Scored inContext 89%

22% Clean sheetsContext 11%

10.78 ShotsContext 10.00

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

35% On target shareContext 44%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 5.56

70% Box shareContext 57%

17% ConversionContext 18%

1.00 OffsidesContext 2.14

15.67 Shots allowedContext 19.33

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22

4.22 BlocksContext 5.22

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

64% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 35%

390 PassesContext 316

309 Accurate passesContext 243

79% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.79

11.56 FoulsContext 9.22

7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.44

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.35

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.76

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.30 ShotsContext 10.20

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

34% On target shareContext 41%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

66% Box shareContext 53%

17% ConversionContext 16%

1.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.80 Shots allowedContext 19.20

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.10

4.50 BlocksContext 5.20

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

65% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 36%

389 PassesContext 318

309 Accurate passesContext 245

79% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.80 FoulsContext 9.10

7.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior DLDLL

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts

Fortuna Sittard WLWDD

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel141 km306 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected

D18 OctA · NEC Nijmegen2–20.9 xPts
D10 OctH · Twente1–10.9 xPts
W19 SepA · Willem II1–01.4 xPts
L12 SepH · Ajax1–50.9 xPts
W6 SepA · ADO Den Haag3–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Fortuna Sittard
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Jan	6Eredivisie 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	141 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	306 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira

20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian

30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti

Fortuna Sittard Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

31M. Branderhorst(G)

28J. Hubner 23P. Brittijn 3R. Guth 6S. van Ottele 12Ivo Pinto

22S. ’t Zand 20É. Michut 14S. Simons

25L. Zeefuik 9A. Descotte

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Fortuna Sittard Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Fortuna Sittard · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-0
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	Fortuna Sittard
Groningen	L 1–5 H	W 3–2 A
Ajax	D 2–2 A	L 1–5 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 A	D 2–2 A
Willem II	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Cambuur	W 4–0 A	W 3–1 H
Points	8 of 18 · 1.33 per game	11 of 18 · 1.83 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Excelsior wins1 draws1 Fortuna Sittard wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.33 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

20 Feb 2026Fortuna Sittard2–1Excelsior
19 Oct 2025Excelsior1–0Fortuna Sittard
26 Aug 2023Excelsior2–2Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Fortuna Sittard
Scored per game	1.78	1.78
Conceded per game	2.00	1.89
Match goals	3.78	3.67
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	100%	67%
Over 3.5	56%	67%
Both teams scored	67%	78%
Clean sheets	22%	11%
Failed to score	11%	11%
Games	9	9

	Excelsior	Fortuna Sittard
Scored per game	1.90	1.60
Conceded per game	2.00	1.90
Match goals	3.90	3.50
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	100%	60%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	70%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	3.33
Corners conceded	4.50	8.67
Match total	8.75	12.00	10.39
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.22	1.56
Opponent cards	0.78	1.78
Match total	2.00	3.34	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	44% 4/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	22% 2/9

	Excelsior	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.43
Corners conceded	4.56	7.71
Match total	8.56	11.14	10.39
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.50
Opponent cards	1.10	1.60
Match total	2.20	3.10	2.77
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.