Eredivisie Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 23 · 19:00 De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
Twente 5th · 17 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel106 kmRest days6.3 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Twente—%
Draw—%
Heerenveen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Enschede)

Forecast from 8 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Twente and Heerenveen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

TwenteHeerenveen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
45 Current StrengthIn forecast 31
41 AttackIn forecast 36
49 DefenceIn forecast 40
58 Form indexContext 39
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Twente

Attack—
Defense risk—

Heerenveen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

TwenteHeerenveen
1.89 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55
+0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
89% Scored inContext 67%
22% Clean sheetsContext 44%
20.56 ShotsContext 15.11
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
34% On target shareContext 40%
13.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.56
65% Box shareContext 66%
9% ConversionContext 11%
1.57 OffsidesContext 2.20
11.11 Shots allowedContext 14.56
3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.57 BlocksContext 4.44
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.14
69% Save rateContext 73%
58% PossessionIn forecast 53%
535 PassesContext 493
462 Accurate passesContext 421
86% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.92
11.33 FoulsContext 8.67
8.44 Fouls sufferedContext 10.78
0.78 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.27
0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.43
90% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
20.56 ShotsContext 14.90
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
34% On target shareContext 40%
13.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
65% Box shareContext 66%
9% ConversionContext 11%
1.57 OffsidesContext 2.20
11.11 Shots allowedContext 15.20
3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.22
4.57 BlocksContext 4.70
2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13
69% Save rateContext 69%
58% PossessionIn forecast 54%
535 PassesContext 498
462 Accurate passesContext 425
86% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.88
11.33 FoulsContext 8.40
8.44 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Twente
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km244 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Utrecht1–22.1 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Fortuna Sittard1–11.9 xPts
  • W20 SepH · PSV Eindhoven3–21.0 xPts
  • W12 SepH · ADO Den Haag2–02.4 xPts
  • W9 SepH · Telstar1–02.2 xPts
Heerenveen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel106 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
  • L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
  • L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Twente Heerenveen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 17 Jan8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km106 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways244 km173 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 20 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one7.87.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Twente Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Utrecht (H) 1–2, 18 Oct
16J. Drommel(G)
29A. Adelgaard 4Ruud Nijstad 3R. Pröpper 28B. van Rooij
8D. Weidmann 6R. Zerrouki
27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots
9W. Weghorst
Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct
1B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude
8N. Courtens 16M. Linday
7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Twente Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Heerenveen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Twente · Home 2.40points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
4-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
Heerenveen · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentTwenteHeerenveen
PSV Eindhoven W 3–2 H L 0–2 A
Telstar W 1–0 H D 0–0 H
PEC Zwolle W 3–1 H L 0–2 H
Points9 of 9 · 3.00 per game1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

4 Twente wins1 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game2.17 – 0.83 Over 2.550% Both scored33% Clean sheets50% · 17%
  • 9 Aug 2026Heerenveen1–0Twente
  • 7 Feb 2026Twente5–0Heerenveen
  • 24 Aug 2025Heerenveen1–2Twente
  • 9 Feb 2025Heerenveen3–3Twente
  • 17 Sep 2024Twente2–0Heerenveen
  • 30 Sep 2023Twente1–0Heerenveen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

TwenteHeerenveenForecast
Scored per game 1.891.67
Conceded per game 1.111.22
Match goals 3.002.89
Over 1.5 78%78%
Over 2.5 56%56%
Over 3.5 44%56%
Both teams scored 67%33%
Clean sheets 22%44%
Failed to score 11%33%
Games99
TwenteHeerenveenForecast
Scored per game 1.901.50
Conceded per game 1.201.10
Match goals 3.102.60
Over 1.5 80%70%
Over 2.5 60%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 70%30%
Clean sheets 20%50%
Failed to score 10%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

TwenteHeerenveenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.225.11
Corners conceded3.894.89
Match total11.1110.0010.39
Over 8.5100% 9/967% 6/9
Over 9.578% 7/944% 4/9
Over 10.567% 6/933% 3/9
Cards
Cards0.781.00
Opponent cards1.561.33
Match total2.342.332.77
Over 3.522% 2/911% 1/9
Over 4.50% 0/90% 0/9
TwenteHeerenveenLeague
Corners
Corners won7.225.20
Corners conceded3.895.20
Match total11.1110.4010.39
Over 8.5100% 9/970% 7/10
Over 9.578% 7/950% 5/10
Over 10.567% 6/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.001.00
Opponent cards1.601.20
Match total2.602.202.77
Over 3.530% 3/1010% 1/10
Over 4.510% 1/100% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Twente9 games · scored 17 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
3 5 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 1 76-90
Heerenveen9 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 2 76-90
Twente10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2 1 0-15
3 6 16-30
3 31-45
2 3 46-60
4 1 61-75
5 1 76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 4 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Eredivisie

View all fixtures →
Excelsior Fortuna Sittard Jan 2219:00 Ajax Telstar Jan 2315:30 Feyenoord PEC Zwolle Jan 2317:45 Twente Heerenveen Jan 2319:00 PSV Eindhoven ADO Den Haag Jan 2320:00 GO Ahead Eagles Cambuur Jan 2411:15 NEC Nijmegen Willem II Jan 2413:30 Sparta Rotterdam Groningen Jan 2413:30 AZ Alkmaar Utrecht Jan 2415:45