Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Excelsior. Excelsior had 6.1 days of rest, Groningen 3.2 and had to travel 202 km.
Away travel202 kmRest days6.1 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Excelsior37%
Draw27%
Groningen36%
Excelsior38%
Draw27%
Groningen34%
Excelsior38%
Draw27%
Groningen35%
Excelsior30%
Draw26%
Groningen43%
Excelsior38%
Draw27%
Groningen35%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartijn Vos
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 11
Team strength
Excelsior
Groningen
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
21
AttackIn forecast
41
18
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorGroningen
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
79%
Scored inContext
71%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.57
ShotsContext
14.71
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.77
35%
On target shareContext
43%
7.07
Shots in the boxContext
8.21
59%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.90
16.57
Shots allowedContext
11.07
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.15
4.71
BlocksContext
2.58
4.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
70%
Save rateContext
62%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
358
PassesContext
404
275
Accurate passesContext
322
77%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.86
FoulsContext
11.29
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.79
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.79
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.60
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
15.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.11
33%
On target shareContext
42%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
59%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
1.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
15.70
Shots allowedContext
9.80
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
4.50
BlocksContext
1.88
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
75%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
365
PassesContext
419
284
Accurate passesContext
339
78%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.50
FoulsContext
11.30
8.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Groningen
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel202 km294 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 3.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 2 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 202 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 294 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
20L. Hartjes
25S. Middendorp
11G. de Regt
10N. Naujoks
30D. Sanches Fernandes
33Jerolldino Bergraaf
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
10Y. Taha
26T. van Bergen
14J. Schreuders
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Groningen+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.29points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-4
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.00
Groningen · Away
1.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-4
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Ajax | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Heracles | L 1–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 H | L 2–4 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–4 A | W 1–0 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.86 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Excelsior | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.20 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.14 | 4.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 9.70 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 8/14 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 5/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.36 | 1.79 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.65 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% 5/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 4/14 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Excelsior | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 9.88 | 9.89 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martijn Vos Netherlands · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.36league 3.34
Red cards0.27league 0.21
Cards 5+18%league 32%
Fouls27.0league 22.0
Penalties0.27league 0.28
Home wins27%league 49%
ExcelsiorNo previous matches with this referee.
Groningen2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L3 Nov 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–63
- D31 Aug 24A · Almere City FC1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior14 games · scored 14 · conceded 24
6
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
6
46-60
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Groningen14 games · scored 19 · conceded 21
2
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
7
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
3
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
