Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Excelsior37.4%fair odds 2.67
Draw26.8%fair odds 3.73
Groningen35.8%fair odds 2.80
Expected goals1.39 – 1.36total 2.75
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Groningen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Excelsior ↓ · Groningen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Excelsior goals, columns Groningen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.85
- 2–18.4%11.89
- 1–08.3%12.08
- 1–28.2%12.20
- 0–18.1%12.42
- 0–07.1%14.18
- 2–06.2%16.12
- 0–25.9%16.97
- 2–25.7%17.53
- 3–13.9%25.63
Winning margin
6.4%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 15.52
11.2%
Excelsior by 2
fair 8.97
19.8%
Excelsior by 1
fair 5.05
26.8%
Draw
fair 3.73
19.3%
Groningen by 1
fair 5.19
10.6%
Groningen by 2
fair 9.44
5.9%
Groningen by 3+
fair 16.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Excelsior goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Groningen goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 37.4% | 37.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.8% | 27.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Groningen win | 35.8% | 35.2% | +0.6 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 50.2% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 55.2% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.39 | 1.37 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Groningen | 1.36 | 1.32 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Excelsior win37.4%2.67
- Draw26.8%3.73
- Groningen win35.8%2.80
- Double chance Excelsior or draw64.2%1.56
- Double chance Excelsior or Groningen73.2%1.37
- Double chance Groningen or draw62.6%1.60
- Draw no bet Excelsior51.1%1.96
- Draw no bet Groningen48.9%2.04
Goals
- Over 0.592.9%1.08
- Over 1.576.6%1.31
- Over 2.551.8%1.93
- Over 3.529.6%3.37
- Over 4.514.4%6.93
- Under 1.523.4%4.28
- Under 2.548.2%2.07
- Under 3.570.4%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.29
- Yes and over 2.543.7%2.29
- Excelsior win and yes18.7%5.36
- Draw and yes19.8%5.05
- Groningen win and yes18.0%5.57
Team goals
- Excelsior over 0.575.1%1.33
- Excelsior over 1.540.5%2.47
- Excelsior over 2.516.4%6.08
- Groningen over 0.574.2%1.35
- Groningen over 1.539.3%2.55
- Groningen over 2.515.6%6.41
- Excelsior clean sheet25.8%3.88
- Groningen clean sheet24.9%4.02
- Excelsior win to nil18.7%5.34
- Groningen win to nil17.8%5.61
Handicap
- Excelsior −1.517.6%5.68
- Excelsior −2.56.4%15.52
- Groningen +1.582.4%1.21
- Groningen +2.593.6%1.07
- Groningen −1.516.5%6.06
- Excelsior +1.583.5%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored126
Favourite won51.6%
Avg chance given to result42.0%
1X2 Brier0.569
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right62.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 23 | 38.1% | 26.1% |
| 40–50% | 44 | 44.8% | 43.2% |
| 50–60% | 30 | 55.3% | 56.7% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 63.9% | 68.8% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.5% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 83.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 103 of 126 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5720 | 0.5581 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.6% | 43.5% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 54.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 103 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 126 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.