Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Excelsior
15th · 26 pts · 25 played
DWLLL
First leg1–2
1–2Full time
Heerenveen
10th · 34 pts · 25 played
LWWLW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Excelsior. Excelsior had 6 days of rest, Heerenveen 7.2 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days6 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Excelsior37%
Draw27%
Heerenveen36%
Excelsior35%
Draw27%
Heerenveen38%
Excelsior38%
Draw27%
Heerenveen35%
Excelsior30%
Draw26%
Heerenveen44%
Excelsior37%
Draw27%
Heerenveen36%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 107
Team strength
ExcelsiorHeerenveen
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
21
AttackIn forecast
36
18
DefenceIn forecast
40
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorHeerenveen
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.68
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.72
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
76%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
11.32
ShotsContext
14.88
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
34%
On target shareContext
34%
7.52
Shots in the boxContext
9.67
66%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.41
OffsidesContext
1.94
15.16
Shots allowedContext
11.60
5.72
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.68
4.24
BlocksContext
2.80
4.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
70%
Save rateContext
65%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
393
PassesContext
432
309
Accurate passesContext
347
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.28
FoulsContext
10.96
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.12
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.48
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.81
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.70
ShotsContext
14.20
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
73%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.70
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.60
BlocksContext
2.90
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
67%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
441
PassesContext
445
354
Accurate passesContext
361
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.30
FoulsContext
10.10
7.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.70
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heerenveen
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel151 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 7.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
15Simon Janssen
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
20L. Hartjes
14L. Schouten
23I. Yegoian
11G. de Regt
10N. Naujoks
30D. Sanches Fernandes
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
6J. van Overeem
8L. Brouwers
7M. Rivera
10R. Meerveld
20J. Trenskow
18L. Nordås
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Heerenveen+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.08points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.31
Heerenveen · Away
1.17points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | W 3–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Twente | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 H | W 4–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Groningen | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Heracles | L 1–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Utrecht | L 1–4 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–5 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 26 of 72 · 1.08 per game | 31 of 72 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Excelsior wins0 draws1 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game2.33 – 0.67
Over 2.5100%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets67% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Heerenveen2–1Excelsior
- 19 Jan 2024Excelsior3–0Heerenveen
- 23 Sep 2023Heerenveen0–3Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.68 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.72 | |
| Match goals | 2.72 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 72% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 72% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 20% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Excelsior | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.24 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 10.38 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 79% 19/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 10/25 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 1.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.52 | |
| Match total | 2.96 | 3.08 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% 8/25 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 24% 6/25 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Excelsior | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 10.00 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.60 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 107 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.28
Red cards0.13league 0.18
Cards 5+27%league 29%
Fouls21.6league 21.5
Penalties0.30league 0.25
Home wins42%league 45%
Excelsior1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L9 Aug 25A · NEC Nijmegen0–51
Heerenveen6 with this referee
Record1-2-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L8 Mar 25A · PSV Eindhoven1–21
- L25 Jan 25A · Groningen0–10
- L2 Nov 24A · Fortuna Sittard0–30
- D17 Aug 24H · Utrecht1–14
- W11 Feb 24H · Ajax3–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior25 games · scored 26 · conceded 42
6
3
0-15
3
6
16-30
5
7
31-45
1
11
46-60
2
7
61-75
9
8
76-90
Heerenveen25 games · scored 42 · conceded 43
2
4
0-15
6
9
16-30
9
6
31-45
7
8
46-60
7
5
61-75
11
11
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
