Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Excelsior
16th · 27 pts · 28 played
LLLLD
First leg0–5
0–2Full time
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 50 pts · 28 played
DLWWD
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. Excelsior had 15 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 13.3 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days15 · 13.3Matches / 14d0 · 1
Excelsior24%
Draw23%
NEC Nijmegen53%
Excelsior26%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen48%
Excelsior24%
Draw23%
NEC Nijmegen53%
Excelsior18%
Draw21%
NEC Nijmegen61%
Excelsior24%
Draw24%
NEC Nijmegen52%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 37
Team strength
ExcelsiorNEC Nijmegen
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
21
AttackIn forecast
37
18
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorNEC Nijmegen
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.46
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
79%
Scored inContext
96%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.68
ShotsContext
16.36
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.82
33%
On target shareContext
42%
7.86
Shots in the boxContext
10.11
66%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
1.42
OffsidesContext
2.52
14.89
Shots allowedContext
11.32
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.96
4.07
BlocksContext
2.42
4.15
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.41
70%
Save rateContext
68%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
392
PassesContext
424
306
Accurate passesContext
338
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.94
12.04
FoulsContext
11.11
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.39
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.70
ShotsContext
17.80
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.70
31%
On target shareContext
38%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
71%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.60
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.80
BlocksContext
2.50
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
75%
Save rateContext
67%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
412
PassesContext
431
322
Accurate passesContext
340
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.30
FoulsContext
9.90
7.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Mar | 13.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
14L. Schouten
4C. Widell
3R. Meissen
2Ilias Bronkhorst
7E. Hansson
20L. Hartjes
10N. Naujoks
30D. Sanches Fernandes
11G. de Regt
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- NEC Nijmegen+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.00points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-8
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.36
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.64points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-3
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 1.79
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 4–2 A |
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 HL 2–3 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 2–3 HL 2–3 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| NAC Breda | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Ajax | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Twente | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H | W 3–2 AL 3–5 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Groningen | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| FC Volendam | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Utrecht | L 1–4 A | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 27 of 81 · 1.00 per game | 47 of 81 · 1.74 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Excelsior wins0 draws1 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game2.00 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 9 Aug 2025NEC Nijmegen5–0Excelsior
- 13 Aug 2023NEC Nijmegen3–4Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 2.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 4.14 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 96% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 82% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 68% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 82% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 4% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.70 | 3.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.18 | 5.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 4.37 | |
| Match total | 9.68 | 10.00 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 18/28 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 12/28 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 9/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.82 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.46 | 1.89 | |
| Match total | 2.96 | 3.71 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% 9/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Excelsior | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.11 | 10.32 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 2.70 | 3.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 3.20
Red cards0.27league 0.17
Cards 5+22%league 27%
Fouls22.5league 21.4
Penalties0.32league 0.24
Home wins41%league 45%
Excelsior4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Jan 26A · AZ Alkmaar1–11
- W19 Oct 25H · Fortuna Sittard1–00
- D16 Dec 23H · GO Ahead Eagles1–10
- L29 Oct 23A · FC Volendam1–32
NEC Nijmegen3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W16 Aug 25A · Heracles4–12
- L7 Dec 24A · GO Ahead Eagles0–52
- L25 Oct 24A · Almere City FC0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior28 games · scored 29 · conceded 47
6
3
0-15
4
7
16-30
5
8
31-45
2
13
46-60
3
8
61-75
9
8
76-90
NEC Nijmegen28 games · scored 69 · conceded 47
8
5
0-15
8
6
16-30
10
15
31-45
15
9
46-60
13
6
61-75
15
6
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
