Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Excelsior
16th · 27 pts · 28 played
LLLLD
First leg0–5
0–2Full time
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 50 pts · 28 played
DLWWD
Excelsior23.7%fair odds 4.22
Draw23.0%fair odds 4.35
NEC Nijmegen53.4%fair odds 1.87
Expected goals1.25 – 1.96total 3.21
Likeliest score1–110.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Excelsior ↓ · NEC Nijmegen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Excelsior goals, columns NEC Nijmegen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%9.60
- 1–29.7%10.32
- 0–27.8%12.90
- 0–17.4%13.53
- 1–36.3%15.81
- 2–16.2%16.17
- 2–26.1%16.52
- 0–35.1%19.75
- 0–04.6%21.90
- 1–04.5%22.09
Winning margin
3.2%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 31.32
6.7%
Excelsior by 2
fair 15.01
13.8%
Excelsior by 1
fair 7.24
23.0%
Draw
fair 4.35
21.9%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 4.56
16.4%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 6.11
15.0%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 6.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Excelsior goals
29%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
NEC Nijmegen goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
14%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior win | 23.7% | 24.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.9% | -0.9 pp |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 53.4% | 52.1% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 58.6% | +3.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 61.8% | 59.3% | +2.5 pp |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.25 | 1.19 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.96 | 1.85 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Excelsior win23.7%4.22
- Draw23.0%4.35
- NEC Nijmegen win53.4%1.87
- Double chance Excelsior or draw46.6%2.14
- Double chance Excelsior or NEC Nijmegen77.0%1.30
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw76.3%1.31
- Draw no bet Excelsior30.7%3.25
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen69.3%1.44
Goals
- Over 0.595.4%1.05
- Over 1.583.5%1.20
- Over 2.562.2%1.61
- Over 3.539.9%2.50
- Over 4.522.1%4.53
- Under 1.516.5%6.07
- Under 2.537.8%2.64
- Under 3.560.1%1.66
Both teams to score
- Yes61.8%1.62
- No38.2%2.62
- Yes and over 2.551.4%1.95
- Excelsior win and yes14.1%7.08
- Draw and yes18.4%5.44
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes29.3%3.42
Team goals
- Excelsior over 0.571.3%1.40
- Excelsior over 1.535.5%2.81
- Excelsior over 2.513.1%7.61
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.585.9%1.16
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.558.3%1.72
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.531.2%3.20
- Excelsior clean sheet14.1%7.09
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet28.7%3.49
- Excelsior win to nil9.5%10.48
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil24.1%4.15
Handicap
- Excelsior −1.59.9%10.15
- Excelsior −2.53.2%31.32
- NEC Nijmegen +1.590.1%1.11
- NEC Nijmegen +2.596.8%1.03
- NEC Nijmegen −1.531.4%3.18
- Excelsior +1.568.6%1.46
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored255
Favourite won51.4%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right62.0%
BTTS called right62.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 38.0% | 35.0% |
| 40–50% | 95 | 44.9% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 60 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 60–70% | 33 | 64.4% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.3% | 85.0% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 206 of 255 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5922 | 0.5848 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.8% | 42.2% |
| Favourite won | 50.5% | 52.9% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 206 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 255 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.