Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (71 vs 17). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (61% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Excelsior had 7.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 6.2 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days7.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Excelsior13%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven68%
Excelsior13%
Draw20%
PSV Eindhoven66%
Excelsior13%
Draw19%
PSV Eindhoven68%
Excelsior9%
Draw16%
PSV Eindhoven75%
Excelsior13%
Draw21%
PSV Eindhoven66%
Over 2.5 61%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 38
Team strength
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
71
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
21
AttackIn forecast
60
18
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorPSV Eindhoven
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.17
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
2.06
2.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+1.11
67%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
11.50
ShotsContext
19.50
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.83
36%
On target shareContext
40%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.17
64%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
16%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
18.00
Shots allowedContext
14.50
8.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
5.33
BlocksContext
4.67
5.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
360
PassesContext
512
276
Accurate passesContext
437
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.11
15.00
FoulsContext
12.67
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.17
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
2.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.75
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.10
ShotsContext
20.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.90
38%
On target shareContext
39%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.30
64%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.25
OffsidesContext
1.63
15.90
Shots allowedContext
12.30
6.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.70
BlocksContext
3.89
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
65%
Save rateContext
62%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
376
PassesContext
517
286
Accurate passesContext
443
76%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.15
12.70
FoulsContext
11.40
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km151 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel87 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 151 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
3R. Meissen
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
6A. Carlén
10N. Naujoks
11G. de Regt
23I. Yegoian
30D. Sanches Fernandes
9S. Włodarczyk
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
2A. Salah-Eddine
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
17Mauro Júnior
23J. Veerman
34I. Saibari
22J. Schouten
5I. Perišić
9R. Pepi
10P. Wanner
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
PSV Eindhoven · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–1 H | W 6–1 H |
| Twente | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 0–5 A | W 5–3 A |
| Points | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Excelsior wins0 draws1 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 13 Jan 2024PSV Eindhoven3–1Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 3.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.83 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 3.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.83 | 3.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 7.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 12.67 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 3.50 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Excelsior | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 8.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 12.67 | 10.07 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.95league 3.53
Red cards0.24league 0.21
Cards 5+26%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 22.6
Penalties0.21league 0.21
Home wins45%league 49%
Excelsior2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Aug 25H · Feyenoord1–20
- D19 Aug 23H · Ajax2–20
PSV Eindhoven5 with this referee
Record5-0-0
Cards · opp.0.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W25 Jan 25H · NAC Breda3–21
- W14 Sep 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–00
- W17 Dec 23A · AZ Alkmaar4–00
- W8 Oct 23A · Sparta Rotterdam4–01
- W2 Sep 23A · Waalwijk4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior6 games · scored 5 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
PSV Eindhoven6 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 9 · conceded 24
3
4
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 30 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
7
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
