Excelsior
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Twente were slight favourites.
Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 15). Excelsior had 6.3 days of rest, Twente 6.4 and had to travel 168 km.
Away travel168 kmRest days6.3 · 6.4Matches / 14d1 · 2
Excelsior29%
Draw26%
Twente45%
Excelsior29%
Draw27%
Twente44%
Excelsior29%
Draw26%
Twente45%
Excelsior23%
Draw25%
Twente52%
Excelsior29%
Draw27%
Twente44%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 19
Team strength
Excelsior
Twente
15
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
21
AttackIn forecast
41
18
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTwente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ExcelsiorTwente
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
3.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.66
67%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.67
ShotsContext
14.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
41%
On target shareContext
30%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
63%
Box shareContext
58%
7%
ConversionContext
5%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.00
16.00
Shots allowedContext
13.33
9.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.00
BlocksContext
5.33
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
54%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
370
PassesContext
429
288
Accurate passesContext
325
78%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.44
Team ratingContext
6.72
15.33
FoulsContext
14.67
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
0.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
2.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.20
ShotsContext
11.40
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
43%
On target shareContext
33%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
65%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.10
Shots allowedContext
12.50
6.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.60
BlocksContext
3.70
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
60%
Save rateContext
61%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
388
PassesContext
395
297
Accurate passesContext
309
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.10
FoulsContext
11.70
8.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Excelsior
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km96 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Twente
Rest6.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel168 km211 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Excelsior |
Twente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Aug | 6.4Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 168 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 96 km | 211 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.6 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Excelsior
Confirmed XI
1S. van Gassel(G)
12A. Zagré
5S. Henderikx
4C. Widell
2Ilias Bronkhorst
6A. Carlén
3R. Meissen
11G. de Regt
23I. Yegoian
30D. Sanches Fernandes
9S. Włodarczyk
Twente
Confirmed XI
1L. Unnerstall(G)
39M. Rots
3R. Pröpper
38M. Bruns
28B. van Rooij
6R. Zerrouki
20T. van den Belt
8T. Booth
14K. Hlynsson
11D. Rots
9R. van Wolfswinkel
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Excelsior
Absences are shown before kick-off
Twente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Excelsior+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Twente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Excelsior · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Twente · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Excelsior wins0 draws2 Twente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 10 Feb 2024Excelsior0–3Twente
- 8 Dec 2023Twente4–2Excelsior
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Excelsior | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 2.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Excelsior | Twente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 2.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 33% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Excelsior | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.67 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 10.33 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.33 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 1.33 | 5.00 | 3.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Excelsior | Twente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.10 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 10.30 | 10.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.31
Red cards0.21league 0.10
Cards 5+37%league 31%
Fouls21.9league 22.6
Penalties0.26league 0.14
Home wins37%league 52%
Excelsior1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L8 Dec 23A · Twente2–45
Twente2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 4.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 Nov 24A · Willem II1–01
- W8 Dec 23H · Excelsior4–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Excelsior3 games · scored 2 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Twente3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Excelsior10 games · scored 11 · conceded 26
2
5
0-15
4
4
16-30
4
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
Twente10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
3
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
