Excelsior vs Utrecht – 26 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Apr 26 · 11:15 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 16th · 28 pts · 30 played LLDLD

First leg1–4 5–0Full time

Utrecht 8th · 44 pts · 30 played DWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Utrecht were slight favourites.

Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 15). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Utrecht. Excelsior had 13.9 days of rest, Utrecht 14.8 and had to travel 48 km.

Away travel48 kmRest days13.9 · 14.8Matches / 14d1 · 0

Excelsior24%

Draw24%

Utrecht52%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.88

Excelsior27%

Draw26%

Utrecht46%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.56

Excelsior23%

Draw23%

Utrecht53%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.90

Excelsior18%

Draw21%

Utrecht60%

Expected goals 1.08 – 2.11

Excelsior24%

Draw24%

Utrecht52%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.85

Over 2.5 60% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 61

Team strength

Excelsior

Utrecht

15 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

21 AttackIn forecast 32

18 DefenceIn forecast 31

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Utrecht

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Excelsior

Utrecht

1.03 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.63

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.82 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

77% Scored inContext 83%

17% Clean sheetsContext 23%

11.70 ShotsContext 14.30

3.87 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.13

33% On target shareContext 36%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.73

66% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 11%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.52

14.77 Shots allowedContext 11.87

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.57

4.03 BlocksContext 3.71

4.07 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30

69% Save rateContext 72%

47% PossessionIn forecast 46%

391 PassesContext 387

305 Accurate passesContext 307

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.87 FoulsContext 10.77

8.53 Fouls sufferedContext 10.47

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.43

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

80% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.50 ShotsContext 13.90

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

33% On target shareContext 42%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

67% Box shareContext 74%

9% ConversionContext 14%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.33

12.50 Shots allowedContext 12.30

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.60 BlocksContext 3.14

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

70% Save rateContext 80%

51% PossessionIn forecast 43%

417 PassesContext 350

326 Accurate passesContext 266

78% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.00

10.50 FoulsContext 10.90

8.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km256 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Utrecht

Rest14.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel48 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Utrecht
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 12 Apr	14.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	48 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	256 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1S. van Gassel(G)

12A. Zagré 14L. Schouten 4C. Widell 3R. Meissen

23I. Yegoian 20L. Hartjes 10N. Naujoks

7E. Hansson 11G. de Regt 30D. Sanches Fernandes

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Utrecht Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1V. Barkas(G)

16S. El Karouani 3M. van der Hoorn 40M. Didden 23N. Vesterlund

21G. Zechiël 27A. Engwanda

10Y. Cathline 20D. de Wit 77Ángel Alarcón

18A. Stepanov

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior Absences are shown before kick-off

Utrecht Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior+0.7 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Utrecht-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 0.93points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-9
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.40

Utrecht · Away 1.13points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-6
Scored: 1.47
Conceded: 1.53

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	Utrecht
PEC Zwolle	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 HW 2–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 HL 0–5 A	W 3–1 AW 1–0 H
Heracles	D 1–1 AL 1–2 H	D 0–0 AW 4–0 H
Feyenoord	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 HL 2–3 A
Heerenveen	L 1–2 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	W 2–0 HL 1–4 A
NAC Breda	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Ajax	D 2–2 HW 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Twente	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 AD 1–1 H
Telstar	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 4–1 HD 1–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 AL 1–2 H	L 3–4 AL 1–2 H
Groningen	L 0–2 H	W 2–1 AL 0–1 H
FC Volendam	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Points	28 of 87 · 0.97 per game	41 of 87 · 1.41 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Excelsior wins2 draws1 Utrecht wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.33 Over 2.567% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

24 Aug 2025Utrecht4–1Excelsior
27 Jan 2024Excelsior1–1Utrecht
12 Nov 2023Utrecht2–2Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.03	1.63
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	2.73	2.83	3.10
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	23%	33%
Both teams scored	63%	63%	60%
Clean sheets	17%	23%
Failed to score	23%	17%
Games	30	30

	Excelsior	Utrecht	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.90
Conceded per game	1.60	0.90
Match goals	2.70	2.80	3.10
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	60%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	4.03	5.00
Corners conceded	5.47	4.67
Match total	9.50	9.67	10.26
Over 8.5	60% 18/30	63% 17/27
Over 9.5	40% 12/30	48% 13/27
Over 10.5	30% 9/30	41% 11/27
Cards
Cards	1.43	1.47
Opponent cards	1.37	1.83
Match total	2.80	3.30	3.32
Over 3.5	30% 9/30	43% 13/30
Over 4.5	20% 6/30	17% 5/30

	Excelsior	Utrecht	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	5.56
Corners conceded	5.40	4.67
Match total	9.30	10.23	10.26
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.70
Opponent cards	1.30	1.50
Match total	2.30	3.20	3.32
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 61 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.48league 3.16

Red cards0.28league 0.17

Cards 5+34%league 26%

Fouls22.1league 21.2

Penalties0.18league 0.22

Home wins48%league 45%

Excelsior1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W20 Dec 25H · PEC Zwolle2–11

Utrecht2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D15 Dec 24H · GO Ahead Eagles3–31
W16 Sep 23A · Heracles3–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.