Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 17). Eyüpspor had 7.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce 4.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Eyüpspor15%
Draw21%
Fenerbahce65%
Eyüpspor15%
Draw21%
Fenerbahce64%
Eyüpspor14%
Draw21%
Fenerbahce65%
Eyüpspor11%
Draw18%
Fenerbahce72%
Eyüpspor15%
Draw21%
Fenerbahce63%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 13
Team strength
Eyüpspor
Fenerbahce
17
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
63
9
AttackIn forecast
67
10
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporFenerbahce
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.88
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
-0.37
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
44%
Scored inContext
88%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
11.19
ShotsContext
17.63
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.56
32%
On target shareContext
37%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
57%
Box shareContext
59%
6%
ConversionContext
13%
2.69
OffsidesContext
2.23
12.25
Shots allowedContext
9.31
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.71
BlocksContext
3.77
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
74%
Save rateContext
81%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
383
PassesContext
467
314
Accurate passesContext
402
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.81
FoulsContext
12.75
15.44
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
2.31
Yellow cardsContext
2.38
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
-0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
40%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.70
ShotsContext
18.20
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.70
40%
On target shareContext
42%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
57%
Box shareContext
56%
6%
ConversionContext
15%
2.70
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.10
Shots allowedContext
9.60
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.33
BlocksContext
3.56
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
73%
Save rateContext
83%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
391
PassesContext
463
317
Accurate passesContext
396
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.20
FoulsContext
11.40
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km5,383 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 25 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 4.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,940 km | 5,383 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 30 | 29.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
18N. Mujakić
5E. Ortakaya
6R. Yalçın
11S. Gürler
10K. Demirbay
33T. Stepanenko
9M. Thiam
30Y. Kayan
70D. Drăguş
19U. Bozok
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
18M. Müldür
7Fred
5İ. Yüksek
9M. Aktürkoğlu
94Talisca
21Marco Asensio
10J. Durán
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Fenerbahce-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.13points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-3
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.25
Fenerbahce · Away
2.00points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-0
- Scored
- 2.13
- Conceded
- 0.88
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Rizespor | L 0–3 A | W 5–2 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 4–2 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 1–2 A | W 3–2 A |
| Konyaspor | L 1–4 H | W 4–0 H |
| Points | 13 of 48 · 0.81 per game | 36 of 48 · 2.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Eyüpspor wins1 draws1 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 May 2025Fenerbahce2–1Eyüpspor
- 20 Dec 2024Eyüpspor1–1Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 0.88 | |
| Match goals | 1.94 | 3.13 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 56% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 6% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 56% | 13% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Eyüpspor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 2.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 3.60 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 5.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.43 | 4.31 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.93 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 8/14 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 7/14 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 5/14 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.31 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 4.69 | 5.69 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 11/16 | 81% 13/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 8/16 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Eyüpspor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 9.55 | 10.70 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.60 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 4.45
Red cards0.08league 0.25
Cards 5+54%league 47%
Fouls24.9league 25.8
Penalties0.31league 0.27
Home wins46%league 34%
EyüpsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Fenerbahce2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.5 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 Nov 25A · Besiktas3–23
- W28 Sep 25H · Antalyaspor2–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor16 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
3
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
8
76-90
Fenerbahce16 games · scored 36 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
4
4
16-30
9
31-45
4
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
9
2
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 27 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
7
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
