Eyüpspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Eyüpspor14.9%fair odds 6.72
Draw20.6%fair odds 4.85
Fenerbahce64.5%fair odds 1.55
Expected goals0.94 – 2.14total 3.08
Likeliest score0–210.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fenerbahce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Eyüpspor ↓ · Fenerbahce → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eyüpspor goals, columns Fenerbahce goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.6%9.47
- 1–29.9%10.11
- 1–19.7%10.30
- 0–19.4%10.68
- 0–37.5%13.25
- 1–37.1%14.15
- 0–05.1%19.67
- 2–24.6%21.60
- 2–14.3%23.15
- 0–44.0%24.73
Winning margin
1.3%
Eyüpspor by 3+
fair 78.27
3.8%
Eyüpspor by 2
fair 26.66
9.8%
Eyüpspor by 1
fair 10.16
20.6%
Draw
fair 4.85
23.2%
Fenerbahce by 1
fair 4.32
19.7%
Fenerbahce by 2
fair 5.09
21.7%
Fenerbahce by 3+
fair 4.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Eyüpspor goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
Fenerbahce goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor win | 14.9% | 15.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 20.6% | 21.4% | -0.8 pp |
| Fenerbahce win | 64.5% | 63.4% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 56.8% | +2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.2% | 52.5% | +1.7 pp |
| Expected goals Eyüpspor | 0.94 | 0.91 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Fenerbahce | 2.14 | 2.05 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Eyüpspor win14.9%6.72
- Draw20.6%4.85
- Fenerbahce win64.5%1.55
- Double chance Eyüpspor or draw35.5%2.82
- Double chance Eyüpspor or Fenerbahce79.4%1.26
- Double chance Fenerbahce or draw85.1%1.17
- Draw no bet Eyüpspor18.7%5.34
- Draw no bet Fenerbahce81.3%1.23
Goals
- Over 0.594.9%1.05
- Over 1.581.7%1.22
- Over 2.559.5%1.68
- Over 3.537.1%2.70
- Over 4.519.8%5.04
- Under 1.518.3%5.48
- Under 2.540.5%2.47
- Under 3.562.9%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes54.2%1.85
- No45.8%2.18
- Yes and over 2.544.4%2.25
- Eyüpspor win and yes8.2%12.14
- Draw and yes15.5%6.44
- Fenerbahce win and yes30.4%3.29
Team goals
- Eyüpspor over 0.560.8%1.64
- Eyüpspor over 1.524.1%4.15
- Eyüpspor over 2.56.9%14.49
- Fenerbahce over 0.588.3%1.13
- Fenerbahce over 1.563.2%1.58
- Fenerbahce over 2.536.2%2.76
- Eyüpspor clean sheet11.7%8.53
- Fenerbahce clean sheet39.2%2.55
- Eyüpspor win to nil6.6%15.07
- Fenerbahce win to nil34.1%2.93
Handicap
- Eyüpspor −1.55.0%19.89
- Eyüpspor −2.51.3%78.27
- Fenerbahce +1.595.0%1.05
- Fenerbahce +2.598.7%1.01
- Fenerbahce −1.541.4%2.42
- Eyüpspor +1.558.6%1.71
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored146
Favourite won45.2%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.603
Over 2.5 called right51.4%
BTTS called right50.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.0% | 27.3% |
| 40–50% | 65 | 44.3% | 33.8% |
| 50–60% | 34 | 55.1% | 52.9% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 65.7% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 9 | 75.9% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 120 of 146 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6132 | 0.5976 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.2% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 45.8% | 48.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 120 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 146 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.