Eyüpspor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Eyüpspor
15th · 18 pts · 20 played
LLDDW
1–2Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 30 pts · 20 played
WWWWD
Eyüpspor32.7%fair odds 3.05
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.79
Istanbul Basaksehir40.9%fair odds 2.45
Expected goals1.31 – 1.49total 2.81
Likeliest score1–112.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Istanbul Basaksehir
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Eyüpspor ↓ · Istanbul Basaksehir → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Eyüpspor goals, columns Istanbul Basaksehir goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.5%8.02
- 1–28.8%11.31
- 0–18.4%11.91
- 2–17.8%12.85
- 1–07.3%13.68
- 0–26.7%14.85
- 0–06.7%14.99
- 2–25.8%17.22
- 2–05.2%19.19
- 1–34.4%22.72
Winning margin
5.1%
Eyüpspor by 3+
fair 19.68
9.6%
Eyüpspor by 2
fair 10.45
18.1%
Eyüpspor by 1
fair 5.53
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.79
20.6%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 1
fair 4.84
12.4%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 2
fair 8.09
7.8%
Istanbul Basaksehir by 3+
fair 12.74
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Eyüpspor goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Istanbul Basaksehir goals
22%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor win | 32.7% | 33.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Istanbul Basaksehir win | 40.9% | 40.2% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 51.7% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.3% | 56.2% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Eyüpspor | 1.31 | 1.30 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Istanbul Basaksehir | 1.49 | 1.45 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Eyüpspor win32.7%3.05
- Draw26.4%3.79
- Istanbul Basaksehir win40.9%2.45
- Double chance Eyüpspor or draw59.1%1.69
- Double chance Eyüpspor or Istanbul Basaksehir73.6%1.36
- Double chance Istanbul Basaksehir or draw67.3%1.49
- Draw no bet Eyüpspor44.5%2.25
- Draw no bet Istanbul Basaksehir55.5%1.80
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.6%1.29
- Over 2.553.2%1.88
- Over 3.530.9%3.23
- Over 4.515.3%6.52
- Under 1.522.4%4.47
- Under 2.546.8%2.14
- Under 3.569.1%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes57.3%1.74
- No42.7%2.34
- Yes and over 2.544.8%2.23
- Eyüpspor win and yes16.9%5.90
- Draw and yes19.7%5.07
- Istanbul Basaksehir win and yes20.6%4.84
Team goals
- Eyüpspor over 0.573.1%1.37
- Eyüpspor over 1.537.8%2.65
- Eyüpspor over 2.514.6%6.85
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 0.577.5%1.29
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 1.544.0%2.27
- Istanbul Basaksehir over 2.518.9%5.28
- Eyüpspor clean sheet22.5%4.45
- Istanbul Basaksehir clean sheet26.9%3.72
- Eyüpspor win to nil15.8%6.33
- Istanbul Basaksehir win to nil20.2%4.95
Handicap
- Eyüpspor −1.514.7%6.82
- Eyüpspor −2.55.1%19.68
- Istanbul Basaksehir +1.585.3%1.17
- Istanbul Basaksehir +2.594.9%1.05
- Istanbul Basaksehir −1.520.2%4.95
- Eyüpspor +1.579.8%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored182
Favourite won48.9%
Avg chance given to result40.5%
1X2 Brier0.592
Over 2.5 called right52.2%
BTTS called right52.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 25 | 38.0% | 36.0% |
| 40–50% | 77 | 44.3% | 35.1% |
| 50–60% | 44 | 55.0% | 54.5% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.9% | 76.2% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 76.1% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 81.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 156 of 182 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5980 | 0.5860 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.2% | 41.3% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 156 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 182 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.