Eyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Eyüpspor
15th · 18 pts · 20 played
LLDDW
1–2Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
6th · 30 pts · 20 played
WWWWD
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir were slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Eyüpspor. Eyüpspor had 8 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 7.9 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days8 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Eyüpspor33%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir41%
Eyüpspor32%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir40%
Eyüpspor33%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir40%
Eyüpspor26%
Draw25%
Istanbul Basaksehir48%
Eyüpspor33%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir40%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 28
Team strength
EyüpsporIstanbul Basaksehir
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
13
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
9
AttackIn forecast
32
10
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
EyüpsporIstanbul Basaksehir
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
50%
Scored inContext
85%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
11.20
ShotsContext
12.35
3.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.16
Shots in the boxContext
8.42
61%
Box shareContext
64%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.77
13.45
Shots allowedContext
12.35
4.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.45
4.11
BlocksContext
3.83
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.45
73%
Save rateContext
78%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
377
PassesContext
434
307
Accurate passesContext
369
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.50
FoulsContext
12.75
14.45
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.78
60%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.20
ShotsContext
13.60
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
35%
On target shareContext
35%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
66%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.40
13.60
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
4.11
BlocksContext
4.22
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
70%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
374
PassesContext
429
303
Accurate passesContext
365
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.30
FoulsContext
13.30
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Eyüpspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Eyüpspor |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 7.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
24J. Yılmaz(G)
77C. Meraş
5B. Ozyurt
68J. Onguéné
17Talha Ülvan
28T. İlter
23L. Pintor
55B. Gezek
8E. Akbaba
26Metehan Altunbaş
19U. Bozok
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
21C. Opéri
3J. Opoku
5Léo Duarte
42Ö. Şahiner
20U. Güneş
8O. Kemen
25A. Harit
14E. Shomurodov
11A. Fayzullaev
9D. Selke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Eyüpspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Eyüpspor-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Eyüpspor · Home
1.00points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-4
- Scored
- 0.90
- Conceded
- 1.50
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.60points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-4
- Scored
- 1.70
- Conceded
- 0.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Eyüpspor | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Besiktas | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 AL 1–4 H | L 1–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Rizespor | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 A | W 5–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 0–1 H | W 4–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–2 A | L 3–4 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Goztepe | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 17 of 57 · 0.89 per game | 29 of 57 · 1.53 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Eyüpspor wins2 draws1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 31 Aug 2025Istanbul Basaksehir0–0Eyüpspor
- 31 Mar 2025Eyüpspor1–3Istanbul Basaksehir
- 28 Oct 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–1Eyüpspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Eyüpspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.75 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 55% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 15% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Eyüpspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Eyüpspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.39 | 10.25 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 9/18 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 39% 7/18 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 5/18 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.05 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 4.85 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 12/20 | 75% 15/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 8/20 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Eyüpspor | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 10.40 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.20 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.50league 4.42
Red cards0.25league 0.23
Cards 5+50%league 46%
Fouls24.5league 25.9
Penalties0.29league 0.26
Home wins29%league 36%
Eyüpspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L17 Aug 25A · Besiktas1–22
Istanbul Basaksehir1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- L24 Nov 25H · Trabzonspor3–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Eyüpspor20 games · scored 16 · conceded 28
3
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
31-45
5
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
11
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir20 games · scored 34 · conceded 21
1
0-15
7
2
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
6
61-75
9
5
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
7
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 23 · conceded 12
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
8
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
