Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for GIL Vicente. Famalicao had 7.1 days of rest, GIL Vicente 6 and had to travel 16 km.
Away travel16 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Famalicao46%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente28%
Famalicao49%
Draw25%
GIL Vicente26%
Famalicao46%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente28%
Famalicao39%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente35%
Famalicao45%
Draw26%
GIL Vicente29%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
RefereeDavid Silva
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 21
Team strength
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
32
36
DefenceIn forecast
50
17
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoGIL Vicente
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.00
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.48
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
100%
9.67
ShotsContext
10.50
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
43%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
56%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
14%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.67
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
3.00
BlocksContext
1.50
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
56%
Save rateContext
100%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
542
PassesContext
503
471
Accurate passesContext
445
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.04
13.33
FoulsContext
12.50
14.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.25
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.90
ShotsContext
11.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
39%
On target shareContext
33%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
62%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.30
8.20
Shots allowedContext
10.60
2.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
2.56
BlocksContext
3.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
63%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
448
PassesContext
398
381
Accurate passesContext
332
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.77
12.60
FoulsContext
11.90
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
DLL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km3,045 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 17 · 1 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
GIL Vicente |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 16 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,045 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
28Pedro Bondo
4F. van Breemen
3L. Realpe
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
19Paulo Moreira
8Marcos Peña
7Sorriso
14M. De Amorim
23Gil Dias
70G. Koutsias
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
30Lucão(G)
26Weverson
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
47Ricardo Esgaio
86Diogo Prioste
5F. Cáseres
20Gil Martins
32Martin Fernández
11Joelson Fernandes
23Héctor Hernández
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
GIL Vicente · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Famalicao wins3 draws2 GIL Vicente wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.13
Over 2.538%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets38% · 50%
- 1 Feb 2026GIL Vicente5–0Famalicao
- 24 Aug 2025Famalicao0–0GIL Vicente
- 17 Feb 2025GIL Vicente0–2Famalicao
- 14 Sep 2024Famalicao1–1GIL Vicente
- 29 Mar 2024GIL Vicente1–2Famalicao
- 4 Nov 2023Famalicao3–1GIL Vicente
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 0% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 2 |
| Famalicao | GIL Vicente | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 7.00 | 8.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Famalicao | GIL Vicente | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 8.90 | 8.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Silva 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.24league 3.87
Red cards0.14league 0.17
Cards 5+71%league 30%
Fouls27.4league 25.4
Penalties0.19league 0.30
Home wins29%league 40%
Famalicao2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 Jan 25A · Boavista2–01
- W24 Aug 24H · Boavista1–01
GIL Vicente1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D6 Jan 25H · Rio Ave1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao3 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
GIL Vicente2 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
