Famalicao
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Famalicao were slight favourites.
Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 25). Famalicao had 7 days of rest, Rio Ave 5 and had to travel 20 km.
Away travel20 kmRest days7 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2
Famalicao52%
Draw26%
Rio Ave22%
Famalicao52%
Draw25%
Rio Ave22%
Famalicao52%
Draw26%
Rio Ave22%
Famalicao44%
Draw28%
Rio Ave28%
Famalicao52%
Draw25%
Rio Ave22%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 8
Team strength
Famalicao
Rio Ave
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
24
AttackIn forecast
18
36
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FamalicaoRio Ave
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.17
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
83%
Scored inContext
83%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.33
ShotsContext
10.50
3.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
31%
On target shareContext
40%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
75%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.67
11.33
Shots allowedContext
16.17
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.83
2.80
BlocksContext
3.50
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
86%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
350
PassesContext
361
279
Accurate passesContext
295
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.82
19.00
FoulsContext
13.33
16.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.50
ShotsContext
10.80
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
42%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
69%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.86
11.70
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.22
BlocksContext
3.80
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
80%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
346
PassesContext
348
276
Accurate passesContext
282
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.84
17.50
FoulsContext
12.80
16.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Famalicao
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km466 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rio Ave
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel20 km589 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Famalicao |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 23 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 20 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 466 km | 589 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Famalicao
Confirmed XI
25L. Carević(G)
5Rafa Soares
16J. de Haas
3L. Realpe
17Rodrigo Pinheiro
14M. De Amorim
6T. van de Looi
7Sorriso
20Gustavo Sá
23Gil Dias
12S. Elisor
Rio Ave
Confirmed XI
1C. Miszta(G)
4J. Panzo
63J. Lomboto
23F. Petrasso
77O. Richards
10B. Aguilera
5A. Ntoi
17M. Vrousai
80O. Pohlmann
9Clayton
11André Luiz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Famalicao
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rio Ave
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Famalicao+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Famalicao · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Rio Ave · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Famalicao wins4 draws0 Rio Ave wins
Goals per game1.17 – 0.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 10 Mar 2025Famalicao1–0Rio Ave
- 4 Oct 2024Rio Ave1–1Famalicao
- 16 Feb 2024Famalicao2–1Rio Ave
- 16 Sep 2023Rio Ave1–1Famalicao
- 26 May 2023Rio Ave2–2Famalicao
- 22 Jan 2023Famalicao0–0Rio Ave
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Famalicao | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 3.50 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Famalicao | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.17 | |
| Match goals | 1.67 | 3.50 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 83% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Famalicao | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.83 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.16 | 4.16 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Famalicao | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.70 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.80 | 9.02 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.30 | 5.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.88league 4.98
Red cards0.38league 0.23
Cards 5+63%league 61%
Fouls27.1league 28.0
Penalties0.50league 0.43
Home wins38%league 36%
FamalicaoNo previous matches with this referee.
Rio Ave1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D17 Aug 25H · Nacional1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Famalicao6 games · scored 7 · conceded 3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Rio Ave6 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Famalicao10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
