Famalicao vs SC Braga – 6 Dec 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 13 Sat, Dec 6 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 5th · 20 pts · 12 played DWWLD

1–2Full time

SC Braga 6th · 19 pts · 12 played DWLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

SC Braga were slight favourites.

SC Braga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 39). Famalicao had 7.2 days of rest, SC Braga 5 and had to travel 18 km.

Away travel18 kmRest days7.2 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2

Famalicao30%

Draw27%

SC Braga43%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.46

Famalicao31%

Draw27%

SC Braga42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Famalicao30%

Draw27%

SC Braga43%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.46

Famalicao24%

Draw26%

SC Braga50%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.64

Famalicao31%

Draw27%

SC Braga42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalClaudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira

Cards per match 5.6
Penalties per match 0.46
Matches 13

Team strength

Famalicao

SC Braga

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 62

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 56

24 AttackIn forecast 42

36 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

SC Braga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

SC Braga

1.08 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.92

0.58 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.92

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.73

0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

75% Scored inContext 83%

58% Clean sheetsContext 33%

13.08 ShotsContext 13.17

4.27 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.17

30% On target shareContext 39%

9.33 Shots in the boxContext 8.36

71% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13

10.75 Shots allowedContext 7.83

3.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

2.55 BlocksContext 2.60

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

83% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 66%

366 PassesContext 610

294 Accurate passesContext 535

80% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.87

18.83 FoulsContext 10.17

16.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.92

3.17 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.75

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.82

-0.40 Goals minus xGContext +0.25

70% Scored inContext 90%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.70 ShotsContext 12.40

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60

29% On target shareContext 37%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

73% Box shareContext 64%

7% ConversionContext 16%

2.14 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.70 Shots allowedContext 8.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

2.40 BlocksContext 3.25

3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

80% Save rateContext 73%

51% PossessionIn forecast 59%

366 PassesContext 567

293 Accurate passesContext 491

80% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.87

18.80 FoulsContext 10.80

16.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.10

3.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km30 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

SC Braga

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel18 km3,381 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	SC Braga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 10
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov	5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 1 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	18 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	30 km	3,381 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 16J. de Haas 3L. Realpe 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

21M. Zabiri

SC Braga Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1L. Horníček(G)

26B. Arrey-Mbi 4S. Niakaté 14G. Lagerbielke

77Gabri Martínez 29Jean-Baptiste Gorby 8João Moutinho 2Víctor Gómez

21Ricardo Horta 39Fran Navarro 18Pau Víctor

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

SC Braga Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
SC Braga+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 1.33points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

SC Braga · Away 1.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 11 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	SC Braga
Moreirense	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Nacional	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Guimaraes	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 A
Arouca	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 A
Rio Ave	D 0–0 H	D 2–2 A
Casa Pia	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 H
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 A
AVS	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 H
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 H
Tondela	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Points	17 of 33 · 1.55 per game	16 of 33 · 1.45 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Famalicao wins2 draws3 SC Braga wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.33 Over 2.583% Both scored83% Clean sheets0% · 17%

25 Apr 2025Famalicao1–1SC Braga
16 Dec 2024SC Braga3–3Famalicao
18 Jan 2024Famalicao1–2SC Braga
11 Aug 2023SC Braga1–2Famalicao
5 Feb 2023SC Braga4–1Famalicao
12 Aug 2022Famalicao0–3SC Braga

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.08	1.92
Conceded per game	0.58	0.92
Match goals	1.67	2.83	2.65
Over 1.5	50%	83%
Over 2.5	25%	67%	49%
Over 3.5	8%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	58%	33%
Failed to score	25%	17%
Games	12	12

	Famalicao	SC Braga	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	2.00
Conceded per game	0.70	1.00
Match goals	1.60	3.00	2.65
Over 1.5	50%	90%
Over 2.5	20%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	54%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	5.58	5.40
Corners conceded	4.42	2.60
Match total	10.00	8.00	9.17
Over 8.5	67% 8/12	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	42% 5/12	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	42% 5/12	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	3.25	1.83
Opponent cards	2.42	2.83
Match total	5.67	4.66	5.57
Over 3.5	75% 9/12	83% 10/12
Over 4.5	67% 8/12	58% 7/12

	Famalicao	SC Braga	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	4.67
Corners conceded	4.80	3.22
Match total	10.60	7.89	9.17
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	3.50	1.90
Opponent cards	2.70	2.50
Match total	6.20	4.40	5.57
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Claudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira Portugal · 13 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.31league 5.23

Red cards0.31league 0.29

Cards 5+62%league 65%

Fouls27.9league 27.6

Penalties0.46league 0.49

Home wins31%league 35%

Famalicao2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.5.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W1 Nov 25A · Nacional1–06
D28 Sep 25H · Rio Ave0–04

SC Braga2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5 Pens for · against2 · 0

D5 Oct 25A · Sporting CP1–15
W10 Aug 25H · Tondela3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.