Famalicao vs Sporting CP – 13 Sep 2025

Primeira Liga Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 13 · 20:30 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 4th · 10 pts · 4 played WWDW

1–2Full time

Sporting CP 5th · 9 pts · 4 played WWWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were slight favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 38). Famalicao had 14.1 days of rest, Sporting CP 14 and had to travel 303 km.

Away travel303 kmRest days14.1 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1

Famalicao20%

Draw24%

Sporting CP56%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.78

Famalicao20%

Draw24%

Sporting CP56%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.80

Famalicao20%

Draw24%

Sporting CP56%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.78

Famalicao15%

Draw22%

Sporting CP63%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.00

Famalicao20%

Draw24%

Sporting CP56%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.80

Over 2.5 52% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 64

Team strength

Famalicao

Sporting CP

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

24 AttackIn forecast 75

36 DefenceIn forecast 81

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Sporting CP

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Sporting CP

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.25

0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.75

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 2.34

0.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73

+0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.91

75% Scored inContext 100%

100% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.50 ShotsContext 22.50

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.75

33% On target shareContext 34%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 14.50

72% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 14%

1.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.75 Shots allowedContext 7.25

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50

3.33 BlocksContext 2.00

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

100% Save rateContext 78%

50% PossessionIn forecast 65%

361 PassesContext 508

291 Accurate passesContext 440

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.11 Team ratingContext 7.16

18.00 FoulsContext 8.25

15.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.25

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.66

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.79

90% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

10.60 ShotsContext 17.80

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.90

35% On target shareContext 39%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 11.10

65% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 15%

1.80 OffsidesContext 1.50

11.40 Shots allowedContext 6.80

3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 1.88

3.38 BlocksContext 2.75

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.80

84% Save rateContext 75%

48% PossessionIn forecast 61%

345 PassesContext 496

276 Accurate passesContext 428

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.98 Team ratingContext 7.20

16.60 FoulsContext 10.70

17.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.10

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest14.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Sporting CP

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel303 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug	14Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	303 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 16J. de Haas 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 8Marcos Peña

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12João Virgínia(G)

91Ricardo Mangas 25G. Inácio 6Z. Debast 13G. Vagiannidis

14G. Kochorashvili 42M. Hjulmand

8Pote 17Trincão 7G. Quenda

97L. Suárez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Sporting CP Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sporting CP+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.00

Sporting CP · Away 3.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

0 Famalicao wins0 draws6 Sporting CP wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.567% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

15 Mar 2025Sporting CP3–1Famalicao
26 Oct 2024Famalicao0–3Sporting CP
16 Apr 2024Famalicao0–1Sporting CP
27 Aug 2023Sporting CP1–0Famalicao
30 Apr 2023Sporting CP2–1Famalicao
13 Nov 2022Famalicao1–2Sporting CP

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	3.25
Conceded per game	0.00	0.75
Match goals	1.25	4.00	2.75
Over 1.5	25%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	75%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	100%	50%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

	Famalicao	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	3.25
Conceded per game	0.00	0.75
Match goals	1.25	4.00	2.75
Over 1.5	25%	100%
Over 2.5	25%	75%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	0%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	100%	50%
Failed to score	25%	0%
Games	4	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	7.50
Corners conceded	4.75	2.25
Match total	9.75	9.75	9.08
Over 8.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Over 9.5	50% 2/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	50% 2/4	25% 1/4
Cards
Cards	2.75	1.75
Opponent cards	1.00	3.25
Match total	3.75	5.00	5.08
Over 3.5	75% 3/4	75% 3/4
Over 4.5	50% 2/4	75% 3/4

	Famalicao	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	6.00
Corners conceded	5.00	2.60
Match total	11.00	8.60	9.08
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.30
Opponent cards	3.60	3.30
Match total	6.30	5.60	5.08
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 64 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.00league 4.98

Red cards0.42league 0.20

Cards 5+55%league 60%

Fouls28.0league 27.2

Penalties0.34league 0.33

Home wins63%league 38%

Famalicao5 with this referee

Record0-3-2 Cards · opp.4.4 · 4.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds4

D21 Sep 24A · Moreirense0–03
L2 Dec 23H · FC Porto0–34
D21 Aug 23H · Moreirense0–04
D13 May 23A · Vizela0–05
L31 Oct 22A · Guimaraes2–36

Sporting CP7 with this referee

Record6-0-1 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.7 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds2

W2 Feb 25H · Farense3–11
L5 Dec 24A · Moreirense1–21
W17 Mar 24H · Boavista6–12
W11 Feb 24H · SC Braga5–00
W8 Oct 23H · Arouca2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.