Famalicao vs Tondela – 25 Jan 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 25 · 18:00 Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão

Famalicao 7th · 26 pts · 18 played WLLLW

3–0Full time

Tondela 17th · 12 pts · 18 played LLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Famalicao were slight favourites.

Famalicao were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 16). Famalicao had 7.1 days of rest, Tondela 7 and had to travel 106 km.

Away travel106 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2

Famalicao59%

Draw24%

Tondela17%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.86

Famalicao60%

Draw23%

Tondela17%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.93

Famalicao59%

Draw24%

Tondela17%

Expected goals 1.83 – 0.86

Famalicao52%

Draw26%

Tondela22%

Expected goals 1.63 – 0.97

Famalicao60%

Draw23%

Tondela17%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.94

Over 2.5 50% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vila Nova de Famalicão)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalCarlos Macedo

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 33

Team strength

Famalicao

Tondela

37 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

24 AttackIn forecast 16

36 DefenceIn forecast 29

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Famalicao

Attack—

Defense risk—

Tondela

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Famalicao

Tondela

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

0.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

1.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.51

72% Scored inContext 39%

50% Clean sheetsContext 11%

12.56 ShotsContext 10.61

4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

32% On target shareContext 33%

8.71 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

68% Box shareContext 60%

9% ConversionContext 6%

1.73 OffsidesContext 3.06

10.83 Shots allowedContext 12.56

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.17

2.65 BlocksContext 3.18

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.76

81% Save rateContext 72%

51% PossessionIn forecast 43%

380 PassesContext 313

308 Accurate passesContext 246

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.68

17.89 FoulsContext 13.94

15.94 Fouls sufferedContext 11.83

2.72 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

70% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.30 ShotsContext 9.60

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

37% On target shareContext 29%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.80

61% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 8%

1.20 OffsidesContext 2.78

11.60 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.80 BlocksContext 3.10

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

78% Save rateContext 73%

51% PossessionIn forecast 40%

391 PassesContext 301

319 Accurate passesContext 232

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.63

17.80 FoulsContext 14.00

15.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Famalicao

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,045 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Tondela

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel106 km198 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Famalicao	Tondela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan	7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	106 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,045 km	198 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Famalicao Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25L. Carević(G)

28Pedro Bondo 16J. de Haas 55I. Ba 17Rodrigo Pinheiro

14M. De Amorim 6T. van de Looi

7Sorriso 20Gustavo Sá 23Gil Dias

12S. Elisor

Tondela Confirmed XI

3-4-3

31Bernardo Fontes(G)

5João Afonso 4Christian Marques 2Bebeto

60N. Maviram 15S. Sithole 97Cicero 27Rodrigo Conceição

90M. Aïko 7Pedro Henryque 10J. Hodge

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Famalicao Absences are shown before kick-off

Tondela Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Famalicao+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Tondela+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Famalicao · Home 1.22points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-4
Scored: 1.44
Conceded: 0.89

Tondela · Away 0.78points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-6
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.89

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Famalicao	Tondela
Santa Clara	W 1–0 AW 3–0 H	W 2–1 A
Alverca	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Estrela	L 2–3 H	D 0–0 H
Benfica	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
Estoril	W 4–0 H	D 2–2 H
SC Braga	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Moreirense	D 2–2 A	L 0–1 A
FC Porto	L 0–1 H	L 0–2 H
Nacional	W 1–0 A	L 1–3 A
Guimaraes	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 H
Arouca	D 1–1 A	W 3–1 H
Rio Ave	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 A
Casa Pia	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 H
Sporting CP	L 1–2 H	L 0–3 H
AVS	W 1–0 A	D 2–2 A
GIL Vicente	D 0–0 H	W 1–0 A
Points	23 of 51 · 1.35 per game	12 of 51 · 0.71 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Famalicao wins0 draws0 Tondela wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets100% · 0%

16 Aug 2025Tondela0–1Famalicao

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Famalicao	Tondela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	0.67
Conceded per game	0.78	1.67
Match goals	1.94	2.33	2.69
Over 1.5	50%	61%
Over 2.5	33%	56%	50%
Over 3.5	17%	22%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	49%
Clean sheets	50%	11%
Failed to score	28%	61%
Games	18	18

	Famalicao	Tondela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.80
Conceded per game	1.00	1.60
Match goals	2.30	2.40	2.69
Over 1.5	50%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Famalicao	Tondela	League
Corners
Corners won	5.06	3.50
Corners conceded	5.11	5.39
Match total	10.17	8.89	9.15
Over 8.5	67% 12/18	44% 8/18
Over 9.5	50% 9/18	39% 7/18
Over 10.5	50% 9/18	33% 6/18
Cards
Cards	2.78	2.78
Opponent cards	2.28	2.33
Match total	5.06	5.11	5.35
Over 3.5	72% 13/18	72% 13/18
Over 4.5	50% 9/18	44% 8/18

	Famalicao	Tondela	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	3.30
Corners conceded	5.50	5.30
Match total	9.80	8.60	9.15
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.70
Opponent cards	2.40	2.30
Match total	5.20	5.00	5.35
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Carlos Macedo Portugal · 33 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.33league 5.01

Red cards0.21league 0.29

Cards 5+45%league 59%

Fouls29.2league 27.3

Penalties0.33league 0.46

Home wins52%league 38%

Famalicao6 with this referee

Record2-1-3 Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 2 Reds2

W14 Dec 25H · Estoril4–03
W10 Mar 25H · Rio Ave1–01
L30 Dec 24H · Santa Clara1–23
L29 Oct 23A · Estrela0–14
D26 May 23A · Rio Ave2–25

Tondela

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.