Fatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 8 pts · 15 played
LWDLL
1–1Full time
Kocaelispor
8th · 19 pts · 15 played
LWDWD
Our take
Kocaelispor were slight favourites.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 12). Absences weigh more on Kocaelispor. Fatih Karagümrük had 7.1 days of rest, Kocaelispor 7 and had to travel 197 km.
Away travel197 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Fatih Karagümrük31%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor42%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor43%
Fatih Karagümrük30%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor43%
Fatih Karagümrük25%
Draw26%
Kocaelispor50%
Fatih Karagümrük31%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor42%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
Fatih KaragümrükKocaelispor
12
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
15
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
13
AttackIn forecast
16
25
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Fatih KaragümrükKocaelispor
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
47%
Scored inContext
60%
7%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.27
ShotsContext
9.80
3.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
26%
On target shareContext
35%
5.27
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
53%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
2.62
OffsidesContext
2.20
15.20
Shots allowedContext
10.93
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.58
3.79
BlocksContext
3.36
4.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
65%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
353
PassesContext
349
273
Accurate passesContext
276
77%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.87
FoulsContext
14.00
14.27
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.82
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
10.40
ShotsContext
10.50
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
25%
On target shareContext
36%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
55%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.60
16.50
Shots allowedContext
9.30
7.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
4.00
BlocksContext
3.33
4.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
65%
Save rateContext
68%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
330
PassesContext
371
249
Accurate passesContext
299
76%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.90
FoulsContext
13.90
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km704 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel197 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fatih Karagümrük |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 197 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 704 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
29J. Balkovec
6A. Çankaya
47Ricardo Esgaio
14Marius Tresor Doh
5M. Kranevitter
70Serginho
8B. Özcan
11D. Johnson
19D. Fofana
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
1A. Jovanovic
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
2A. Dijksteel
10K. Linetty
14Show
8H. Keïta
75T. Bingöl
19S. Dursun
7Daniel Agyei
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fatih Karagümrük
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Kocaelispor-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Fatih Karagümrük · Home
0.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-6
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 1.88
Kocaelispor · Away
0.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-5
- Scored
- 0.71
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Fatih Karagümrük | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| Rizespor | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Kayserispor | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 3–4 H | L 0–1 A |
| Samsunspor | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 0–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 5 of 42 · 0.36 per game | 16 of 42 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.93 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.80 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 47% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 20% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 33% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 7% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 40% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.70 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.73 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.73 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.46 | 8.57 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 9/15 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 5/15 | 21% 3/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.53 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.13 | 4.73 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 5/15 | 60% 9/15 | |
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.10 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.50 | 4.74 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.22league 4.46
Red cards0.11league 0.26
Cards 5+11%league 48%
Fouls22.4league 26.2
Penalties0.11league 0.27
Home wins44%league 34%
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Sep 25A · Samsunspor2–32
Kocaelispor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W9 Nov 25H · Galatasaray1–02
- L11 Aug 25A · Trabzonspor0–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fatih Karagümrük15 games · scored 13 · conceded 29
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
11
61-75
6
4
76-90
Kocaelispor15 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 11 · conceded 20
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
7
61-75
5
3
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
