Fatih Karagümrük
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Fatih Karagümrük
18th · 8 pts · 15 played
LWDLL
1–1Full time
Kocaelispor
8th · 19 pts · 15 played
LWDWD
Fatih Karagümrük30.9%fair odds 3.23
Draw27.0%fair odds 3.70
Kocaelispor42.0%fair odds 2.38
Expected goals1.22 – 1.46total 2.68
Likeliest score1–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kocaelispor
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fatih Karagümrük ↓ · Kocaelispor → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.9 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fatih Karagümrük goals, columns Kocaelispor goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%7.77
- 0–19.4%10.67
- 1–28.9%11.22
- 1–07.7%12.95
- 0–07.5%13.31
- 2–17.4%13.43
- 0–27.3%13.67
- 2–25.4%18.40
- 2–05.1%19.60
- 1–34.3%23.06
Winning margin
4.3%
Fatih Karagümrük by 3+
fair 23.13
8.9%
Fatih Karagümrük by 2
fair 11.25
17.7%
Fatih Karagümrük by 1
fair 5.64
27.0%
Draw
fair 3.70
21.4%
Kocaelispor by 1
fair 4.68
12.7%
Kocaelispor by 2
fair 7.85
7.9%
Kocaelispor by 3+
fair 12.60
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Fatih Karagümrük goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
4%4+
Kocaelispor goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük win | 30.9% | 31.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.1% | -0.1 pp |
| Kocaelispor win | 42.0% | 41.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.1% | 49.9% | +0.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.7% | 54.6% | +0.1 pp |
| Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük | 1.22 | 1.22 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Kocaelispor | 1.46 | 1.45 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fatih Karagümrük win30.9%3.23
- Draw27.0%3.70
- Kocaelispor win42.0%2.38
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw58.0%1.73
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or Kocaelispor73.0%1.37
- Double chance Kocaelispor or draw69.1%1.45
- Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük42.4%2.36
- Draw no bet Kocaelispor57.6%1.74
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.4%1.33
- Over 2.550.1%2.00
- Over 3.528.1%3.56
- Over 4.513.4%7.47
- Under 1.524.6%4.06
- Under 2.549.9%2.00
- Under 3.571.9%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes54.7%1.83
- No45.3%2.21
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.39
- Fatih Karagümrük win and yes15.2%6.57
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Kocaelispor win and yes20.0%5.00
Team goals
- Fatih Karagümrük over 0.570.4%1.42
- Fatih Karagümrük over 1.534.4%2.91
- Fatih Karagümrük over 2.512.5%8.02
- Kocaelispor over 0.576.8%1.30
- Kocaelispor over 1.542.8%2.33
- Kocaelispor over 2.518.1%5.52
- Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet23.2%4.30
- Kocaelispor clean sheet29.6%3.38
- Fatih Karagümrük win to nil15.7%6.36
- Kocaelispor win to nil22.0%4.54
Handicap
- Fatih Karagümrük −1.513.2%7.57
- Fatih Karagümrük −2.54.3%23.13
- Kocaelispor +1.586.8%1.15
- Kocaelispor +2.595.7%1.05
- Kocaelispor −1.520.7%4.84
- Fatih Karagümrük +1.579.3%1.26
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored140
Favourite won45.7%
Avg chance given to result39.7%
1X2 Brier0.603
Over 2.5 called right51.4%
BTTS called right49.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 22 | 38.0% | 27.3% |
| 40–50% | 61 | 44.3% | 36.1% |
| 50–60% | 33 | 55.0% | 51.5% |
| 60–70% | 14 | 65.7% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 8 | 75.5% | 87.5% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 114 of 140 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6134 | 0.5974 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.1% | 40.4% |
| Favourite won | 46.5% | 49.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 114 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 140 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.