FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
FC Augsburg
14th · 10 pts · 12 played
LLLWL
2–0Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
4th · 23 pts · 12 played
WLWWL
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were clear favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 36). FC Augsburg had 7 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 6.9 and had to travel 408 km.
Away travel408 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Augsburg17%
Draw22%
Bayer Leverkusen61%
FC Augsburg18%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen59%
FC Augsburg17%
Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen62%
FC Augsburg13%
Draw19%
Bayer Leverkusen69%
FC Augsburg18%
Draw23%
Bayer Leverkusen59%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanySven Jablonski
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 90
Team strength
FC AugsburgBayer Leverkusen
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
82
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
72
AttackIn forecast
87
23
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgBayer Leverkusen
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.33
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
75%
Scored inContext
92%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.83
ShotsContext
13.25
3.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
32%
On target shareContext
38%
7.08
Shots in the boxContext
8.42
60%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.64
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.08
Shots allowedContext
11.42
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.73
4.10
BlocksContext
2.70
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.18
57%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
391
PassesContext
602
310
Accurate passesContext
537
79%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.69
Team ratingContext
7.01
12.33
FoulsContext
9.17
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
10.92
2.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.60
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
59%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
18%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.30
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.11
3.88
BlocksContext
4.00
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
53%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
404
PassesContext
591
322
Accurate passesContext
530
80%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.63
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.70
FoulsContext
8.40
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
8.40
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km355 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel408 km608 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 6.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 408 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 355 km | 608 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
31K. Schlotterbeck
5C. Matsima
40N. Banks
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
19Robin Fellhauer
20A. Claude-Maurice
32F. Rieder
30A. Kade
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
1M. Flekken(G)
12E. Tapsoba
5L. Badé
8R. Andrich
19E. Poku
24Aleix García
30I. Maza
7J. Hofmann
10M. Tillman
11M. Terrier
14P. Schick
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
1.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-4
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.50
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
2.00points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 2.40
- Conceded
- 2.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| VfL Wolfsburg | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 A | W 6–0 H |
| FSV Mainz 05 | L 1–4 H | W 4–3 A |
| FC St. Pauli | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Bayern München | L 2–3 H | L 0–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 24 · 0.75 per game | 15 of 24 · 1.88 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 FC Augsburg wins0 draws6 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.13
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 26 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0FC Augsburg
- 14 Dec 2024FC Augsburg0–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 18 May 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–1FC Augsburg
- 13 Jan 2024FC Augsburg0–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 3 Feb 2023FC Augsburg1–0Bayer Leverkusen
- 13 Aug 2022Bayer Leverkusen1–2FC Augsburg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 2.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 8% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 8.25 | 9.75 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 42% 5/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 4/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 3/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.92 | 5.33 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 9/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 8/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| FC Augsburg | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 9.33 | 9.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.20 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 90 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.94
Red cards0.09league 0.21
Cards 5+41%league 41%
Fouls20.2league 21.6
Penalties0.19league 0.33
Home wins41%league 44%
FC Augsburg3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L13 Jan 24H · Bayer Leverkusen0–13
- L11 Feb 23A · FSV Mainz 051–31
- D16 Jan 22H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–13
Bayer Leverkusen6 with this referee
Record4-0-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W28 Mar 25H · VfL Bochum3–10
- W13 Jan 24A · FC Augsburg1–01
- W2 Sep 23H · SV Darmstadt 985–13
- L29 Oct 22A · RB Leipzig0–23
- W14 May 22H · SC Freiburg2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg12 games · scored 15 · conceded 27
2
2
0-15
2
7
16-30
3
6
31-45
3
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen12 games · scored 28 · conceded 17
6
0-15
7
2
16-30
6
6
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 23 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
7
1
16-30
5
7
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
