FC Augsburg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Augsburg
14th · 10 pts · 12 played
LLLWL
2–0Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
4th · 23 pts · 12 played
WLWWL
FC Augsburg17.3%fair odds 5.78
Draw21.6%fair odds 4.63
Bayer Leverkusen61.1%fair odds 1.64
Expected goals1.02 – 2.07total 3.09
Likeliest score1–110.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayer Leverkusen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Augsburg ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Augsburg goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%9.90
- 1–29.9%10.06
- 0–29.7%10.26
- 0–18.9%11.24
- 1–36.9%14.56
- 0–36.7%14.84
- 2–25.1%19.72
- 0–05.0%19.82
- 2–14.9%20.44
- 1–04.1%24.28
Winning margin
1.7%
FC Augsburg by 3+
fair 58.66
4.5%
FC Augsburg by 2
fair 22.08
11.1%
FC Augsburg by 1
fair 9.03
21.6%
Draw
fair 4.63
23.0%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.34
18.7%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 5.34
19.4%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 5.16
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
FC Augsburg goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
16%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg win | 17.3% | 17.9% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 21.6% | 23.1% | -1.5 pp |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 61.1% | 58.9% | +2.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 54.4% | +5.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.4% | 52.9% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals FC Augsburg | 1.02 | 0.96 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 2.07 | 1.90 | +0.17 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Augsburg win17.3%5.78
- Draw21.6%4.63
- Bayer Leverkusen win61.1%1.64
- Double chance FC Augsburg or draw38.9%2.57
- Double chance FC Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen78.4%1.28
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw82.7%1.21
- Draw no bet FC Augsburg22.1%4.53
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen77.9%1.28
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.581.9%1.22
- Over 2.559.7%1.67
- Over 3.537.4%2.68
- Over 4.520.1%4.99
- Under 1.518.1%5.54
- Under 2.540.3%2.48
- Under 3.562.6%1.60
Both teams to score
- Yes56.4%1.77
- No43.6%2.29
- Yes and over 2.546.3%2.16
- FC Augsburg win and yes9.8%10.23
- Draw and yes16.5%6.05
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes30.1%3.32
Team goals
- FC Augsburg over 0.563.9%1.56
- FC Augsburg over 1.527.2%3.68
- FC Augsburg over 2.58.4%11.91
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.587.4%1.14
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.561.3%1.63
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.534.3%2.92
- FC Augsburg clean sheet12.6%7.95
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet36.1%2.77
- FC Augsburg win to nil7.5%13.27
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil31.0%3.22
Handicap
- FC Augsburg −1.56.2%16.04
- FC Augsburg −2.51.7%58.66
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.593.8%1.07
- Bayer Leverkusen +2.598.3%1.02
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.538.1%2.63
- FC Augsburg +1.561.9%1.62
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored109
Favourite won56.9%
Avg chance given to result43.6%
1X2 Brier0.548
Over 2.5 called right62.4%
BTTS called right56.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 15 | 38.1% | 46.7% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 45.2% | 41.2% |
| 50–60% | 28 | 54.5% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 20 | 65.2% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74.5% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 90.0% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 91 of 109 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5292 | 0.5356 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.5% | 43.7% |
| Favourite won | 59.3% | 59.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 91 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 109 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.