FC Augsburg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Bayern München were clear favourites.
Bayern München were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 46). Bayern München usually keep the ball (65% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FC Augsburg had 7.1 days of rest, Bayern München 7.9 and had to travel 56 km.
Away travel56 kmRest days7.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
FC Augsburg14%
Draw19%
Bayern München66%
FC Augsburg15%
Draw22%
Bayern München63%
FC Augsburg14%
Draw19%
Bayern München66%
FC Augsburg10%
Draw16%
Bayern München74%
FC Augsburg15%
Draw22%
Bayern München63%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Augsburg)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyFlorian Exner
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 13
Team strength
FC Augsburg
Bayern München
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
50
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
72
AttackIn forecast
96
23
DefenceIn forecast
90
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayern München
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC AugsburgBayern München
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.00
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.84
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+1.11
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.50
ShotsContext
19.00
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.40
30%
On target shareContext
39%
7.44
Shots in the boxContext
12.70
56%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.80
Shots allowedContext
9.30
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
4.11
BlocksContext
2.89
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
67%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
407
PassesContext
631
330
Accurate passesContext
565
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.94
Team ratingContext
7.37
8.70
FoulsContext
8.90
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Augsburg
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km459 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayern München
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel56 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Augsburg |
Bayern München |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 7.9Bundesliga 2025-2026, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 56 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 459 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Augsburg
Confirmed XI
1F. Dahmen(G)
31K. Schlotterbeck
6J. Gouweleeuw
5C. Matsima
13D. Giannoulis
4H. Massengo
17K. Jakić
27M. Wolf
26E. Saad
19Robin Fellhauer
36M. Kömür
Bayern München
Confirmed XI
1M. Neuer(G)
44J. Stanišić
4J. Tah
2D. Upamecano
27K. Laimer
8L. Goretzka
6J. Kimmich
14L. Díaz
7S. Gnabry
17M. Olise
9H. Kane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Augsburg
Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayern München
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Augsburg+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bayern München+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Augsburg · Home
No home games yet this season.
Bayern München · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 FC Augsburg wins0 draws6 Bayern München wins
Goals per game1.25 – 2.38
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 4 Apr 2025FC Augsburg1–3Bayern München
- 22 Nov 2024Bayern München3–0FC Augsburg
- 27 Jan 2024FC Augsburg2–3Bayern München
- 27 Aug 2023Bayern München3–1FC Augsburg
- 11 Mar 2023Bayern München5–3FC Augsburg
- 17 Sep 2022FC Augsburg1–0Bayern München
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 6.00 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 6.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 6.00 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 5.00 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| FC Augsburg | Bayern München | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 8.10 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 3.20 | 5.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Florian Exner Germany · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.62league 5.00
Red cards0.38league 0.29
Cards 5+38%league 57%
Fouls22.8league 23.4
Penalties0.31league 0.43
Home wins38%league 36%
FC Augsburg2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Feb 25A · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–02
- L7 Apr 24A · 1899 Hoffenheim1–31
Bayern München3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D15 Mar 25A · Union Berlin1–12
- W1 Feb 25H · Holstein Kiel4–31
- W27 Oct 24A · VfL Bochum5–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Augsburg1 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Bayern München1 games · scored 6 · conceded 0
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
FC Augsburg10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Bayern München10 games · scored 30 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
6
2
61-75
9
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
