FC Midtjylland
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Midtjylland53.2%fair odds 1.88
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.17
Genk22.8%fair odds 4.39
Expected goals1.83 – 1.13total 2.97
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Midtjylland ↓ · Genk → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Midtjylland goals, columns Genk goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.88
- 2–19.8%10.20
- 1–08.9%11.26
- 2–08.7%11.54
- 1–26.0%16.53
- 3–16.0%16.68
- 0–05.7%17.48
- 2–25.5%18.03
- 3–05.3%18.87
- 0–15.3%19.00
Winning margin
14.1%
FC Midtjylland by 3+
fair 7.12
16.5%
FC Midtjylland by 2
fair 6.08
22.7%
FC Midtjylland by 1
fair 4.40
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.17
13.8%
Genk by 1
fair 7.24
6.3%
Genk by 2
fair 15.97
2.7%
Genk by 3+
fair 37.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
FC Midtjylland goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Genk goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland win | 53.2% | 52.5% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 25.0% | -1.0 pp |
| Genk win | 22.8% | 22.4% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 52.4% | +4.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.5% | 54.0% | +3.5 pp |
| Expected goals FC Midtjylland | 1.83 | 1.72 | +0.11 |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.13 | 1.05 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Midtjylland win53.2%1.88
- Draw24.0%4.17
- Genk win22.8%4.39
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or draw77.2%1.29
- Double chance FC Midtjylland or Genk76.0%1.32
- Double chance Genk or draw46.8%2.14
- Draw no bet FC Midtjylland70.0%1.43
- Draw no bet Genk30.0%3.34
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.580.1%1.25
- Over 2.556.9%1.76
- Over 3.534.5%2.90
- Over 4.517.9%5.59
- Under 1.519.9%5.03
- Under 2.543.1%2.32
- Under 3.565.5%1.53
Both teams to score
- Yes57.5%1.74
- No42.5%2.35
- Yes and over 2.546.2%2.16
- FC Midtjylland win and yes26.7%3.74
- Draw and yes18.3%5.47
- Genk win and yes12.5%7.99
Team goals
- FC Midtjylland over 0.584.0%1.19
- FC Midtjylland over 1.554.7%1.83
- FC Midtjylland over 2.527.9%3.59
- Genk over 0.567.7%1.48
- Genk over 1.531.2%3.20
- Genk over 2.510.6%9.44
- FC Midtjylland clean sheet32.3%3.10
- Genk clean sheet16.0%6.26
- FC Midtjylland win to nil26.5%3.77
- Genk win to nil10.3%9.75
Handicap
- FC Midtjylland −1.530.5%3.28
- FC Midtjylland −2.514.1%7.12
- Genk +1.569.5%1.44
- Genk +2.585.9%1.16
- Genk −1.59.0%11.16
- FC Midtjylland +1.591.0%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored90
Favourite won56.7%
Avg chance given to result41.3%
1X2 Brier0.569
Over 2.5 called right53.3%
BTTS called right51.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.6% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 34 | 44.7% | 44.1% |
| 50–60% | 34 | 54.6% | 73.5% |
| 60–70% | 9 | 66.2% | 44.4% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 72 of 90 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5627 | 0.5532 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.8% | 43.3% |
| Favourite won | 56.9% | 62.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 72 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 90 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.