FC Midtjylland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Midtjylland were slight favourites.
FC Midtjylland were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 39). FC Midtjylland had 14 days of rest, Genk 4 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days14 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 3
FC Midtjylland53%
Draw24%
Genk23%
FC Midtjylland52%
Draw25%
Genk23%
FC Midtjylland53%
Draw24%
Genk23%
FC Midtjylland45%
Draw26%
Genk29%
FC Midtjylland53%
Draw25%
Genk22%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Herning)
No weather data yet
RefereeVassilis Fotias
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 37
Team strength
FC Midtjylland
Genk
53
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
47
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
37
AttackIn forecast
46
42
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC MidtjyllandGenk
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.81
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
100%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.40
ShotsContext
11.20
5.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
45%
On target shareContext
41%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
71%
Box shareContext
64%
19%
ConversionContext
13%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.20
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.25
BlocksContext
4.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
80%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
384
PassesContext
447
308
Accurate passesContext
381
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.95
15.00
FoulsContext
11.40
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+1.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.10
ShotsContext
13.10
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
40%
On target shareContext
40%
10.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.78
71%
Box shareContext
55%
19%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.43
9.80
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.11
BlocksContext
3.89
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
78%
Save rateContext
66%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
448
PassesContext
547
367
Accurate passesContext
472
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.80
FoulsContext
10.10
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Midtjylland
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km3,208 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Genk
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel619 km155 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Midtjylland |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 4Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,208 km | 155 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 42 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Midtjylland
Confirmed XI
16E. Ólafsson(G)
22M. Bech
3H. Lee
4O. Diao
55V. Bak Jensen
8P. Billing
20V. Byskov
11D. Osorio
10G. Cho
58D. Şimşir
74Júnior Brumado
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
34Adrian Palacios
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
17P. Hrošovský
8B. Heynen
19Y. Medina
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Midtjylland
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Midtjylland+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Genk-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Midtjylland · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Genk · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| FC Midtjylland | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.40 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| FC Midtjylland | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.60 | 2.97 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Midtjylland | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 2.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.20 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| FC Midtjylland | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.40 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.50 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Vassilis Fotias 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.54league 4.11
Red cards0.24league 0.19
Cards 5+51%league 43%
Fouls24.9league 24.6
Penalties0.38league 0.38
Home wins46%league 51%
FC MidtjyllandNo previous matches with this referee.
GenkNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Midtjylland5 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Genk5 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
FC Midtjylland10 games · scored 29 · conceded 10
5
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
2
31-45
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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