FC Porto vs FK Crvena Zvezda – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 12th · 3 pts · 1 played W

2–1Full time

FK Crvena Zvezda 22nd · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were clear favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 40). FC Porto had 3 days of rest, FK Crvena Zvezda 8 and had to travel 2,387 km.

Away travel2,387 kmRest days3 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

FC Porto67%

Draw20%

FK Crvena Zvezda13%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.89

FC Porto64%

Draw21%

FK Crvena Zvezda14%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.87

FC Porto66%

Draw20%

FK Crvena Zvezda14%

Expected goals 2.17 – 0.90

FC Porto59%

Draw23%

FK Crvena Zvezda18%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.00

FC Porto65%

Draw21%

FK Crvena Zvezda14%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.86

Over 2.5 59% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 85

Team strength

FC Porto

FK Crvena Zvezda

73 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 42

74 AttackIn forecast 40

80 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

FK Crvena Zvezda

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.59 Goals minus xGContext +0.07

100% Scored inContext 100%

80% Clean sheetsContext 20%

15.20 ShotsContext 16.14

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

38% On target shareContext 29%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.14

68% Box shareContext 66%

16% ConversionContext 9%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.10 Shots allowedContext 12.14

2.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.14

3.50 BlocksContext 2.29

2.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71

86% Save rateContext 72%

57% PossessionIn forecast 51%

458 PassesContext 396

396 Accurate passesContext 325

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.12 Team ratingContext 7.03

13.20 FoulsContext 11.43

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.14

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,842 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FK Crvena Zvezda

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel2,387 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	FK Crvena Zvezda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 29 Sep	8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,387 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,842 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	3.1	20.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 21D. Prpić 5J. Bednarek 52Martim Fernandes

86Rodrigo Mora 13P. Rosario 6S. Eustaquio

47Ángel Alarcón 27D. Gül 7William Gomes

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Matheus(G)

23N. Tiknizyan 13M. Veljković 30F. Tebo Uchenna 66Y. Seol

20Tomás Händel 21T. Elšnik

4M. Ivanić 22V. Kostov 49N. Radonjić

89M. Arnautović

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FK Crvena Zvezda Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
FK Crvena Zvezda-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home No home games yet this season.

FK Crvena Zvezda · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	FK Crvena Zvezda	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	2.00	3.08
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	59%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	53%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	FC Porto	FK Crvena Zvezda	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	1.00
Conceded per game	0.13	1.00
Match goals	2.63	2.00	3.08
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	63%	0%	59%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	13%	100%	53%
Clean sheets	88%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	8	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	FK Crvena Zvezda	League
Corners
Corners won	8.00	8.00
Corners conceded	2.00	4.00
Match total	10.00	12.00	9.52
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	4.00	2.00
Match total	5.00	4.00	4.37
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1

	FC Porto	FK Crvena Zvezda	League
Corners
Corners won	6.11	7.00
Corners conceded	3.67	4.57
Match total	9.78	11.57	9.52
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.90
Opponent cards	3.50	1.60
Match total	5.80	3.50	4.37
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 4.19

Red cards0.19league 0.19

Cards 5+39%league 41%

Fouls22.3league 26.3

Penalties0.28league 0.30

Home wins49%league 37%

FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

FK Crvena Zvezda

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.