UEFA Europa League Quarter-finals Thu, Apr 9 · 20:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
FC Porto 1st · 6 pts · 2 played
1–1Full time
Nottingham Forest 8th · 3 pts · 2 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

FC Porto were slight favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. FC Porto had 5 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 18.2 and had to travel 1,427 km.

Away travel1,427 kmRest days5 · 18.2Matches / 14d1 · 0
FC Porto45%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest28%
Expected goals 1.46 – 1.10
FC Porto53%
Draw25%
Nottingham Forest22%
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.04
FC Porto44%
Draw28%
Nottingham Forest28%
Expected goals 1.44 – 1.10
FC Porto38%
Draw28%
Nottingham Forest34%
Expected goals 1.30 – 1.23
FC Porto44%
Draw28%
Nottingham Forest28%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.08
Over 2.5 47% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
  • Cards per match 4.1
  • Penalties per match 0.35
  • Matches 86

Team strength

FC PortoNottingham Forest
80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68
80 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
74 AttackIn forecast 68
80 DefenceIn forecast 74
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—
Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC PortoNottingham Forest
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.86
1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.68
+0.83 Goals minus xGContext -0.86
100% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
11.00 ShotsContext 21.00
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00
41% On target shareContext 33%
7.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.50
64% Box shareContext 64%
18% ConversionContext 5%
1.00 OffsidesContext 3.50
17.00 Shots allowedContext 9.00
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50
— BlocksContext 2.50
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
92% Save rateContext 60%
38% PossessionIn forecast 53%
311 PassesContext 484
230 Accurate passesContext 386
74% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.95 Team ratingContext 6.83
7.50 FoulsContext 12.00
16.50 Fouls sufferedContext 17.50
3.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.55
0.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11
+0.51 Goals minus xGContext -0.35
100% Scored inContext 60%
40% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.30 ShotsContext 17.10
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
37% On target shareContext 31%
7.40 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
61% Box shareContext 58%
15% ConversionContext 7%
1.90 OffsidesContext 2.75
10.10 Shots allowedContext 10.60
3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60
3.25 BlocksContext 3.33
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
87% Save rateContext 72%
47% PossessionIn forecast 47%
383 PassesContext 427
315 Accurate passesContext 353
82% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.94
12.80 FoulsContext 11.30
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80
2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Nottingham Forest
Rest18.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,427 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
FC Porto Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 4 Apr18.2Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,427 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 40 / 0 / 4
Next matchdays after this one32.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI
4-3-3
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi 5J. Bednarek 3Thiago Silva 52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga 13P. Rosario 42S. Fofana
17Borja Sainz 29T. Moffi 7William Gomes
+6 more reported missing outside this XI
Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI
3-4-2-1
27S. Ortega(G)
4Morato 5Murillo 44Z. Abbott
14D. Ndoye 16N. Domínguez 22R. Yates 29D. Bakwa
24J. McAtee 10M. Gibbs-White
11C. Wood
+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
FC Porto Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • FC Porto+0.6 pp
  • Draw-0.2 pp
  • Nottingham Forest-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00
Nottingham Forest · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 FC Porto wins0 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 23 Oct 2025Nottingham Forest2–0FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

FC PortoNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 2.001.00
Conceded per game 0.501.00
Match goals 2.502.00 2.56
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50% 47%
Over 3.5 0%0%
Both teams scored 50%50% 52%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
FC PortoNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 1.901.20
Conceded per game 0.800.90
Match goals 2.702.10 2.56
Over 1.5 80%60%
Over 2.5 60%60% 47%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 60%40% 52%
Clean sheets 40%40%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

FC PortoNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won3.009.00
Corners conceded6.003.00
Match total9.0012.009.07
Over 8.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards3.501.50
Opponent cards3.502.00
Match total7.003.504.80
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.5100% 2/250% 1/2
FC PortoNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won4.306.00
Corners conceded4.204.30
Match total8.5010.309.07
Over 8.550% 5/1070% 7/10
Over 9.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Over 10.520% 2/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.801.50
Opponent cards3.301.70
Match total6.103.204.80
Over 3.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 4.570% 7/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.93league 4.76
Red cards0.15league 0.35
Cards 5+40%league 65%
Fouls23.9league 26.2
Penalties0.35league 0.24
Home wins43%league 47%
FC Porto

No previous matches with this referee.

Nottingham Forest

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

FC Porto2 games · scored 4 · conceded 1
0-15
3 16-30
1 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Nottingham Forest2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
3 0-15
5 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
6 3 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 1 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 2 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Europa League

View all fixtures →
SC Braga Real Betis 11 SC Freiburg Celta Vigo 30 FC Porto Nottingham Forest 11 Bologna Aston Villa 13 Celta Vigo SC Freiburg 13 Nottingham Forest FC Porto 10 Aston Villa Bologna 40 Real Betis SC Braga 24