FC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
FC Porto were slight favourites.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 63). FC Porto had 6 days of rest, SC Braga 7 and had to travel 47 km.
Away travel47 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Porto50%
Draw26%
SC Braga24%
FC Porto50%
Draw26%
SC Braga24%
FC Porto50%
Draw26%
SC Braga24%
FC Porto42%
Draw27%
SC Braga31%
FC Porto50%
Draw26%
SC Braga24%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Porto)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalFabio Jose Costa Verissimo
- Cards per match 5.0
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 8
Team strength
FC Porto
SC Braga
72
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
74
AttackIn forecast
42
80
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSC Braga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC PortoSC Braga
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
0.22
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.89
1.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
0.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
89%
Scored inContext
78%
78%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
15.00
ShotsContext
13.22
5.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.56
39%
On target shareContext
42%
10.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
68%
Box shareContext
58%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.33
8.78
Shots allowedContext
8.11
1.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.89
3.11
BlocksContext
2.13
1.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.13
92%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
65%
445
PassesContext
588
383
Accurate passesContext
509
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.56
FoulsContext
9.89
10.22
Fouls sufferedContext
12.67
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
0.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.83
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.40
ShotsContext
13.00
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
33%
On target shareContext
43%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.86
67%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
8.70
Shots allowedContext
8.00
1.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
3.10
BlocksContext
2.57
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
75%
Save rateContext
77%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
447
PassesContext
527
382
Accurate passesContext
447
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.80
FoulsContext
10.30
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Porto
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,924 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
SC Braga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel47 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Porto |
SC Braga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 27 Oct | 7Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 47 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,924 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
86Rodrigo Mora
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
11Pepê
9Samu Omorodion
7William Gomes
SC Braga
Confirmed XI
1L. Horníček(G)
26B. Arrey-Mbi
14G. Lagerbielke
2Víctor Gómez
5Leonardo Lelo
29Jean-Baptiste Gorby
27F. Grillitsch
20M. Dorgeles
21Ricardo Horta
18Pau Víctor
10R. Zalazar
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Porto
Absences are shown before kick-off
SC Braga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Porto+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- SC Braga+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Porto · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
SC Braga · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-0
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | FC Porto | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Nacional | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Sporting CP | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Casa Pia | W 4–0 H | W 4–0 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Guimaraes | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 18 of 18 · 3.00 per game | 6 of 18 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 FC Porto wins1 draws1 SC Braga wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets50% · 33%
- 8 Mar 2025SC Braga1–0FC Porto
- 6 Oct 2024FC Porto2–1SC Braga
- 18 May 2024SC Braga0–1FC Porto
- 14 Jan 2024FC Porto2–0SC Braga
- 19 Mar 2023SC Braga0–0FC Porto
- 30 Sep 2022FC Porto4–1SC Braga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Porto | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.22 | 0.89 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.67 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 22% | 44% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 78% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| FC Porto | SC Braga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Porto | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.11 | 5.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 9.22 | 8.38 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.78 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.78 | 2.78 | |
| Match total | 5.56 | 4.67 | 5.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| FC Porto | SC Braga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.40 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 7.80 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.10 | 5.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo Portugal · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 5.19
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+63%league 64%
Fouls27.0league 27.8
Penalties0.38league 0.48
Home wins50%league 35%
FC Porto1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W29 Sep 25A · Arouca4–03
SC Braga1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D31 Aug 25A · Rio Ave2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Porto9 games · scored 21 · conceded 2
4
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
SC Braga9 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
4
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
4
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 19 · conceded 5
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
SC Braga10 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
3
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
