FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund – 23 Aug 2025

Bundesliga Gameweek 1 Sat, Aug 23 · 17:30 Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli

3–3Full time

Borussia Dortmund

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Borussia Dortmund were clear favourites.

Borussia Dortmund were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 28). FC St. Pauli had ? days of rest, Borussia Dortmund ? and had to travel 284 km.

Away travel284 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

FC St. Pauli14%

Draw20%

Borussia Dortmund66%

Expected goals 0.97 – 2.26

FC St. Pauli15%

Draw22%

Borussia Dortmund63%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.02

FC St. Pauli14%

Draw20%

Borussia Dortmund65%

Expected goals 0.94 – 2.19

FC St. Pauli10%

Draw17%

Borussia Dortmund73%

Expected goals 0.87 – 2.53

FC St. Pauli15%

Draw21%

Borussia Dortmund64%

Expected goals 0.92 – 2.08

Over 2.5 63% Both score 56% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Hamburg)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanyMatthias Jollenbeck

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 52

Team strength

FC St. Pauli

Borussia Dortmund

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

20 AttackIn forecast 69

23 DefenceIn forecast 80

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC St. Pauli

Attack—

Defense risk—

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC St. Pauli

Borussia Dortmund

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 2.31

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.59

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.40 ShotsContext 14.70

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

37% On target shareContext 42%

6.89 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

58% Box shareContext 75%

9% ConversionContext 20%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.60 Shots allowedContext 12.80

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.29 BlocksContext 3.40

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

75% Save rateContext 67%

44% PossessionIn forecast 50%

391 PassesContext 473

314 Accurate passesContext 395

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.93 Team ratingContext 7.18

9.90 FoulsContext 10.10

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 8.50

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC St. Pauli

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Borussia Dortmund

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel284 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC St. Pauli	Borussia Dortmund
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	284 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC St. Pauli Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

22N. Vasilj(G)

25A. Dźwigała 8E. Smith 5H. Wahl

23Louis Oppie 16J. Fujita 6J. Sands 11Arkadiusz Pyrka

10D. Sinani

28M. Pereira Lage 27A. Hountondji

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Borussia Dortmund Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1G. Kobel(G)

5A. Bensebaini 3W. Anton 39F. Mané

24D. Svensson 20M. Sabitzer 13P. Groß 2Yan Couto

7J. Bellingham

27K. Adeyemi 9S. Guirassy

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC St. Pauli Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Borussia Dortmund Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC St. Pauli-0.1 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Borussia Dortmund+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

FC St. Pauli · Home No home games yet this season.

Borussia Dortmund · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 FC St. Pauli wins0 draws2 Borussia Dortmund wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

1 Mar 2025FC St. Pauli0–2Borussia Dortmund
18 Oct 2024Borussia Dortmund2–1FC St. Pauli

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC St. Pauli	Borussia Dortmund	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	63%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	FC St. Pauli	Borussia Dortmund	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.23
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	63%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	56%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC St. Pauli	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.60
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	6.20
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	FC St. Pauli	Borussia Dortmund	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.56
Corners conceded	3.30	3.22
Match total	8.60	8.78	10.60
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.20
Match total	3.60	2.40	6.20
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Matthias Jollenbeck Germany · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.81league 5.83

Red cards0.17league 0.00

Cards 5+38%league 67%

Fouls23.1league 25.7

Penalties0.25league 0.33

Home wins54%league 50%

FC St. Pauli2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L7 Dec 24A · Bayer Leverkusen1–23
L18 Oct 24A · Borussia Dortmund1–21

Borussia Dortmund7 with this referee

Record3-2-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L15 Mar 25A · RB Leipzig0–23
W22 Dec 24A · VfL Wolfsburg3–13
W18 Oct 24H · FC St. Pauli2–12
L6 Apr 24H · VfB Stuttgart0–12
D16 Dec 23A · FC Augsburg1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.