FC Volendam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
FC Volendam16.2%fair odds 6.18
Draw21.7%fair odds 4.62
Ajax62.2%fair odds 1.61
Expected goals0.95 – 2.04total 2.99
Likeliest score0–210.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Ajax
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| FC Volendam ↓ · Ajax → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are FC Volendam goals, columns Ajax goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–210.5%9.53
- 1–110.3%9.75
- 1–29.9%10.06
- 0–19.8%10.24
- 0–37.1%14.02
- 1–36.8%14.79
- 0–05.6%18.01
- 2–24.7%21.23
- 2–14.6%21.67
- 1–04.3%23.49
Winning margin
1.4%
FC Volendam by 3+
fair 69.82
4.1%
FC Volendam by 2
fair 24.26
10.6%
FC Volendam by 1
fair 9.41
21.7%
Draw
fair 4.62
23.5%
Ajax by 1
fair 4.26
19.1%
Ajax by 2
fair 5.23
19.6%
Ajax by 3+
fair 5.11
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
FC Volendam goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
Ajax goals
13%0
27%1
27%2
18%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam win | 16.2% | 16.9% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 21.7% | 22.7% | -1.0 pp |
| Ajax win | 62.2% | 60.4% | +1.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 54.4% | +3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.8% | 52.2% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals FC Volendam | 0.95 | 0.93 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Ajax | 2.04 | 1.93 | +0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- FC Volendam win16.2%6.18
- Draw21.7%4.62
- Ajax win62.2%1.61
- Double chance FC Volendam or draw37.8%2.64
- Double chance FC Volendam or Ajax78.3%1.28
- Double chance Ajax or draw83.8%1.19
- Draw no bet FC Volendam20.7%4.84
- Draw no bet Ajax79.3%1.26
Goals
- Over 0.594.4%1.06
- Over 1.580.4%1.24
- Over 2.557.4%1.74
- Over 3.535.0%2.86
- Over 4.518.3%5.47
- Under 1.519.6%5.11
- Under 2.542.6%2.35
- Under 3.565.0%1.54
Both teams to score
- Yes53.8%1.86
- No46.2%2.16
- Yes and over 2.543.5%2.30
- FC Volendam win and yes8.7%11.44
- Draw and yes16.1%6.21
- Ajax win and yes28.9%3.45
Team goals
- FC Volendam over 0.561.2%1.63
- FC Volendam over 1.524.5%4.08
- FC Volendam over 2.57.1%14.10
- Ajax over 0.587.0%1.15
- Ajax over 1.560.5%1.65
- Ajax over 2.533.4%2.99
- FC Volendam clean sheet13.0%7.70
- Ajax clean sheet38.8%2.58
- FC Volendam win to nil7.4%13.44
- Ajax win to nil33.2%3.01
Handicap
- FC Volendam −1.55.6%18.01
- FC Volendam −2.51.4%69.82
- Ajax +1.594.4%1.06
- Ajax +2.598.6%1.01
- Ajax −1.538.7%2.58
- FC Volendam +1.561.3%1.63
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored26
Favourite won65.4%
Avg chance given to result48.3%
1X2 Brier0.468
Over 2.5 called right73.1%
BTTS called right57.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.3% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 8 | 44.7% | 37.5% |
| 50–60% | 7 | 55.6% | 57.1% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 62.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 80.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 12 of 26 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4995 | 0.4951 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 12 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Groningen 4–0 Heracles50·26·24
- ✓Ajax 2–0 Heracles74·17·9
- ✓NEC Nijmegen 3–0 NAC Breda59·23·18
- ✓Utrecht 4–1 Excelsior65·21·14
- ✓Heerenveen 1–2 Twente35·26·39
- ✗Telstar 2–2 FC Volendam56·24·20
- ✓PSV Eindhoven 4–2 Groningen81·13·6
- ✗GO Ahead Eagles 0–3 Sparta Rotterdam48·26·26
- ✓NAC Breda 2–1 Fortuna Sittard44·26·30
- ✗FC Volendam 2–2 AZ Alkmaar19·23·57
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 26 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.