FC Volendam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Ajax were clear favourites.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 14). Ajax usually keep the ball (57% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. FC Volendam had 6.8 days of rest, Ajax 6 and had to travel 18 km.
Away travel18 kmRest days6.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
FC Volendam16%
Draw22%
Ajax62%
FC Volendam17%
Draw23%
Ajax60%
FC Volendam16%
Draw22%
Ajax62%
FC Volendam12%
Draw19%
Ajax69%
FC Volendam17%
Draw23%
Ajax60%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Volendam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 25
Team strength
FC Volendam
Ajax
14
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
14
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
14
AttackIn forecast
66
19
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FC VolendamAjax
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
0.47
xGVia Att/Def
2.10
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.63
+1.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
67%
7.67
ShotsContext
21.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.33
52%
On target shareContext
43%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
16.67
58%
Box shareContext
75%
22%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
18.33
Shots allowedContext
9.67
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
6.00
BlocksContext
3.67
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
75%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
359
PassesContext
584
281
Accurate passesContext
523
78%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.78
Team ratingContext
7.24
10.00
FoulsContext
10.33
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
0.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.73
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.00
ShotsContext
17.80
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
41%
On target shareContext
32%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
14.11
71%
Box shareContext
74%
17%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
20.00
Shots allowedContext
9.60
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
6.20
BlocksContext
3.11
5.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.75
74%
Save rateContext
65%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
344
PassesContext
571
262
Accurate passesContext
499
76%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.10
9.40
FoulsContext
9.90
8.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Volendam
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km58 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Ajax
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel18 km175 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Volendam |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 18 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 58 km | 175 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Volendam
Confirmed XI
1K. van Oevelen(G)
32Y. Leliendal
3M. Amevor
20N. Verschuren
5P. Ugwu
18N. Bukala
8G. Yah
7O. Kökçü
99A. Descotte
11A. Oehlers
9H. Veerman
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1V. Jaroš(G)
5O. Wijndal
15Y. Baas
4K. Itakura
2Lucas Rosa
8K. Taylor
28K. Fitz-Jim
10O. Gloukh
23S. Berghuis
7Raúl Moro
25W. Weghorst
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Volendam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ajax
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Volendam+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Ajax+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
FC Volendam · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Ajax · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FC Volendam | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 FC Volendam wins0 draws1 Ajax wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 2 Nov 2023Ajax2–0FC Volendam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Volendam | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.67 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| FC Volendam | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.67 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 67% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Volendam | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 14.67 | 10.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 1.67 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| FC Volendam | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 8.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.90 | 3.78 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 11.89 | 10.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.40 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.40league 3.27
Red cards0.32league 0.12
Cards 5+28%league 31%
Fouls22.6league 22.5
Penalties0.40league 0.15
Home wins52%league 58%
FC Volendam1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W29 Oct 23H · Excelsior3–11
Ajax2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W11 Jan 25H · Waalwijk2–11
- W24 Nov 24H · PEC Zwolle2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
FC Volendam3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Ajax3 games · scored 6 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
FC Volendam10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
5
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
