Fenerbahce vs AS Roma – 10 Sep 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 10 · 17:45 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce

1–1Full time

AS Roma

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 63). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AS Roma. Fenerbahce had 5 days of rest, AS Roma 4.9 and had to travel 1,371 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,371 kmRest days5 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Fenerbahce29%

Draw22%

AS Roma49%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.90

Fenerbahce37%

Draw26%

AS Roma37%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.34

Fenerbahce31%

Draw23%

AS Roma47%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.83

Fenerbahce22%

Draw21%

AS Roma57%

Expected goals 1.26 – 2.13

Fenerbahce29%

Draw23%

AS Roma48%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.81

Over 2.5 64% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

23°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 75%

Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano

Cards per match 4.7
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 58

Team strength

Fenerbahce

AS Roma

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

75 AttackIn forecast 72

53 DefenceIn forecast 75

40 Form indexContext 84

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

AS Roma

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

2.27 xGVia Att/Def 2.14

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.62

-0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.56

100% Scored inContext 100%

40% Clean sheetsContext 70%

15.60 ShotsContext 16.30

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

42% On target shareContext 41%

10.80 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

67% Box shareContext 74%

10% ConversionContext 17%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.70 Shots allowedContext 7.60

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70

3.80 BlocksContext 2.29

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

76% Save rateContext 82%

55% PossessionIn forecast 59%

486 PassesContext 539

423 Accurate passesContext 470

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.99 Team ratingContext 7.18

14.00 FoulsContext 10.70

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce LWWL

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 40 · 6 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -2.1 vs expected

L5 SepH · Besiktas1–21.9 xPts
W30 AugA · Samsunspor2–01.7 xPts
W22 AugH · Konyaspor4–22.4 xPts
L15 AugA · Genclerbirligi1–22.1 xPts

AS Roma WWW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,371 km1,008 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 84 · 9 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · +2.8 vs expected

W5 SepH · Atalanta2–12.1 xPts
W31 AugA · Lecce4–02.1 xPts
W24 AugH · Fiorentina4–02.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Süper Lig 2026-2027, 5 Sep	4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 5 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,371 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,238 km	1,008 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 18M. Müldür

28B. Elmaz 5İ. Yüksek 91N. Kanté

7M. Aktürkoğlu 19V. Muriqi 11M. Greenwood

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

22Hermoso 5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini

43Wesley 17K. Koné 4B. Cristante 2D. Rensch

18M. Soulé 21P. Dybala

14D. Malen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce-1.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
AS Roma+2.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home No home games yet this season.

AS Roma · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.31
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	64%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	64%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Fenerbahce	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	2.70
Conceded per game	0.90	0.40
Match goals	2.50	3.10	3.31
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	64%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	30%	64%
Clean sheets	40%	70%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Fenerbahce	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	5.40
Corners conceded	4.11	3.80
Match total	10.78	9.20	9.50
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.60	2.00
Match total	3.50	3.40	3.50
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.48league 3.42

Red cards0.24league 0.08

Cards 5+53%league 25%

Fouls25.0league 23.4

Penalties0.41league 0.25

Home wins43%league 67%

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

AS Roma

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.