Fenerbahce
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
UEFA Champions League
Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 10 · 17:45
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Fenerbahce28.3%fair odds 3.54
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.28
AS Roma48.4%fair odds 2.07
Expected goals1.42 – 1.90total 3.31
Likeliest score1–110.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
AS Roma
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Fenerbahce ↓ · AS Roma → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Fenerbahce goals, columns AS Roma goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%9.71
- 1–29.3%10.78
- 2–16.9%14.45
- 2–26.6%15.23
- 0–26.6%15.26
- 0–16.4%15.66
- 1–35.9%17.04
- 1–04.6%21.57
- 0–04.2%24.05
- 2–34.2%24.08
Winning margin
4.6%
Fenerbahce by 3+
fair 21.74
8.2%
Fenerbahce by 2
fair 12.15
15.5%
Fenerbahce by 1
fair 6.47
23.3%
Draw
fair 4.28
20.9%
AS Roma by 1
fair 4.79
14.8%
AS Roma by 2
fair 6.76
12.7%
AS Roma by 3+
fair 7.88
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Fenerbahce goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
6%4+
AS Roma goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 28.3% | 28.4% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.0% | -0.7 pp |
| AS Roma win | 48.4% | 47.6% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.3% | 61.4% | +2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.9% | 62.7% | +2.2 pp |
| Expected goals Fenerbahce | 1.42 | 1.36 | +0.06 |
| Expected goals AS Roma | 1.90 | 1.81 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Fenerbahce win28.3%3.54
- Draw23.3%4.28
- AS Roma win48.4%2.07
- Double chance Fenerbahce or draw51.6%1.94
- Double chance Fenerbahce or AS Roma76.7%1.30
- Double chance AS Roma or draw71.7%1.39
- Draw no bet Fenerbahce36.9%2.71
- Draw no bet AS Roma63.1%1.58
Goals
- Over 0.595.8%1.04
- Over 1.584.8%1.18
- Over 2.564.3%1.55
- Over 3.542.3%2.37
- Over 4.524.0%4.17
- Under 1.515.2%6.59
- Under 2.535.7%2.80
- Under 3.557.7%1.73
Both teams to score
- Yes64.9%1.54
- No35.1%2.85
- Yes and over 2.554.6%1.83
- Fenerbahce win and yes17.4%5.73
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- AS Roma win and yes28.3%3.54
Team goals
- Fenerbahce over 0.575.7%1.32
- Fenerbahce over 1.541.4%2.42
- Fenerbahce over 2.517.0%5.87
- AS Roma over 0.585.0%1.18
- AS Roma over 1.556.6%1.77
- AS Roma over 2.529.6%3.38
- Fenerbahce clean sheet15.0%6.67
- AS Roma clean sheet24.3%4.12
- Fenerbahce win to nil10.8%9.23
- AS Roma win to nil20.1%4.97
Handicap
- Fenerbahce −1.512.8%7.79
- Fenerbahce −2.54.6%21.74
- AS Roma +1.587.2%1.15
- AS Roma +2.595.4%1.05
- AS Roma −1.527.5%3.64
- Fenerbahce +1.572.5%1.38
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won81.8%
Avg chance given to result59.3%
1X2 Brier0.303
Over 2.5 called right81.8%
BTTS called right72.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 3 | 45.6% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 55.6% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 62.3% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 11 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.3027 | 0.2975 |
| Avg chance given to result | 59.3% | 60.1% |
| Favourite won | 81.8% | 81.8% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 11 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.