Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 19 Sun, Jan 25 · 17:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
Fenerbahce were clear favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 34). Fenerbahce usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Fenerbahce had 3 days of rest, Goztepe 6 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days3 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Fenerbahce69%
Draw19%
Goztepe13%
Fenerbahce65%
Draw21%
Goztepe14%
Fenerbahce67%
Draw20%
Goztepe13%
Fenerbahce61%
Draw22%
Goztepe17%
Fenerbahce67%
Draw19%
Goztepe13%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 14
Team strength
Fenerbahce
Goztepe
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
75
AttackIn forecast
39
53
DefenceIn forecast
36
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGoztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceGoztepe
2.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.56
1.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
0.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
89%
Scored inContext
78%
39%
Clean sheetsContext
61%
17.56
ShotsContext
13.06
6.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.76
37%
On target shareContext
35%
10.44
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
60%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.75
9.17
Shots allowedContext
11.94
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.47
3.77
BlocksContext
3.76
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
80%
Save rateContext
85%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
471
PassesContext
244
407
Accurate passesContext
169
86%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.44
FoulsContext
16.67
12.94
Fouls sufferedContext
9.11
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
17.90
ShotsContext
12.20
7.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
40%
On target shareContext
36%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.70
52%
Box shareContext
70%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.75
8.90
Shots allowedContext
13.60
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
3.43
BlocksContext
3.90
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
73%
Save rateContext
81%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
481
PassesContext
242
418
Accurate passesContext
166
87%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.60
FoulsContext
15.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km962 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Goztepe
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel328 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Goztepe |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 19 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 962 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
27Nélson Semedo
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
14Y. Demir
5İ. Yüksek
20A. Musaba
6M. Guendouzi
21Marco Asensio
45D. Nene
94Talisca
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
77O. Bayrak
3Allan
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
2A. Kurtulan
10Junior Olaitan
39Janderson
14Guilherme Luiz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Goztepe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Fenerbahce+1.5 pp
- Draw-0.9 pp
- Goztepe-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-0
- Scored
- 2.38
- Conceded
- 0.88
Goztepe · Away
1.89points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Goztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | W 3–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Rizespor | W 5–2 A | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 4–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | W 3–2 A | W 3–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 4–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Samsunspor | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 41 of 51 · 2.41 per game | 34 of 51 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Fenerbahce wins2 draws0 Goztepe wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 16 Aug 2025Goztepe0–0Fenerbahce
- 26 Jan 2025Fenerbahce3–2Goztepe
- 17 Aug 2024Goztepe2–2Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 0.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.22 | 1.89 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 33% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 33% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 39% | 61% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Fenerbahce | Goztepe | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.10 | 3.20 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.56 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 9.45 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 7/15 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.39 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.11 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 5.33 | 4.61 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 72% 13/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 10/18 | 39% 7/18 | |
| Fenerbahce | Goztepe | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.50 | 9.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.50 | 4.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 4.38
Red cards0.14league 0.24
Cards 5+29%league 45%
Fouls25.8league 25.7
Penalties0.36league 0.25
Home wins29%league 36%
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D17 Sep 25H · Alanyaspor2–21
Goztepe2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W14 Dec 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep1–02
- W5 Oct 25H · Istanbul Basaksehir1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce18 games · scored 42 · conceded 16
5
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
10
31-45
5
2
46-60
6
3
61-75
11
2
76-90
Goztepe18 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 26 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
6
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
