Fenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Süper Lig
Gameweek 33 Sun, May 16 · 13:00
Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel0 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Fenerbahce—%
Draw—%
Kasimpasa—%
Weather (İstanbul)
Forecast from 1 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Fenerbahce and Kasimpasa. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Fenerbahce
+1.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.57xG against1.34
-
Trend
Kasimpasa
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Fenerbahce
5
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Fenerbahce
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Kasimpasa
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Fenerbahce
+1.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.57xG against1.34
-
Trend
Fenerbahce
2.4
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Kasimpasa
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Kasimpasa
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
FenerbahceKasimpasa
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
62
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
75
AttackIn forecast
21
53
DefenceIn forecast
32
65
Form indexContext
42
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
FenerbahceKasimpasa
2.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
2.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
88%
Scored inContext
88%
63%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
18.57
ShotsContext
12.13
7.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.75
42%
On target shareContext
31%
13.43
Shots in the boxContext
6.50
70%
Box shareContext
52%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.43
Shots allowedContext
13.88
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
3.29
BlocksContext
4.29
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
79%
Save rateContext
77%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
474
PassesContext
334
414
Accurate passesContext
264
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.00
FoulsContext
14.25
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.11
ShotsContext
11.10
6.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
41%
On target shareContext
32%
11.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
69%
Box shareContext
57%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
14.33
Shots allowedContext
13.70
6.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.56
BlocksContext
3.78
4.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
74%
Save rateContext
77%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
429
PassesContext
317
369
Accurate passesContext
248
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.89
FoulsContext
14.60
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Fenerbahce
DWWLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
Kasimpasa
DWDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 8 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Fenerbahce |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 9 May | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,807 km | 656 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Fenerbahce
Last XI · not confirmed
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
91N. Kanté
70O. Aydın
11M. Greenwood
17İ. Kahveci
9R. Lukaku
Kasimpasa
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Gianniotis(G)
45A. Karapo
27M. Ilie
4Adem Arous
2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay
16A. Baldursson
7A. Kol
51Elson Mendes
17J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Benedyczak
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Fenerbahce
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Kasimpasa
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Fenerbahce · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Kasimpasa · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| Konyaspor | W 4–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Fenerbahce wins2 draws0 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game1.83 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 23 Feb 2026Fenerbahce1–1Kasimpasa
- 21 Sep 2025Kasimpasa1–1Fenerbahce
- 16 Feb 2025Fenerbahce3–1Kasimpasa
- 15 Sep 2024Kasimpasa0–2Fenerbahce
- 24 Feb 2024Fenerbahce2–1Kasimpasa
- 8 Oct 2023Kasimpasa0–2Fenerbahce
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.75 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.63 | |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% | |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.29 | 4.43 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.14 | 6.86 | |
| Match total | 9.43 | 11.29 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 2.76 | 4.88 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 2/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Fenerbahce | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 9.44 | 10.78 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 3.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 5.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Fenerbahce8 games · scored 22 · conceded 6
6
1
0-15
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Kasimpasa8 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
5
2
0-15
5
16-30
4
4
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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