Süper Lig Gameweek 33 Sun, May 16 · 13:00 Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum
Erzurumspor FK 11th · 11 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Istanbul Basaksehir 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,049 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Erzurumspor FK—%
Draw—%
Istanbul Basaksehir—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Erzurum)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Erzurumspor FK and Istanbul Basaksehir. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Erzurumspor FKIstanbul Basaksehir
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
27 Current StrengthIn forecast 36
17 AttackIn forecast 32
38 DefenceIn forecast 35
56 Form indexContext 33
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Erzurumspor FK

Attack—
Defense risk—

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Erzurumspor FKIstanbul Basaksehir
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.04
50% Scored inContext 75%
50% Clean sheetsContext 38%
9.43 ShotsContext 11.88
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57
35% On target shareContext 34%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 6.88
63% Box shareContext 54%
8% ConversionContext 13%
1.50 OffsidesContext 2.00
11.29 Shots allowedContext 12.00
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.71
2.20 BlocksContext 3.50
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
75% Save rateContext 70%
46% PossessionIn forecast 52%
409 PassesContext 451
341 Accurate passesContext 383
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.75
11.71 FoulsContext 13.88
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 11.38
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.38
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.63 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70
1.38 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.75
1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
-0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.05
50% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
9.43 ShotsContext 12.30
3.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67
35% On target shareContext 34%
6.29 Shots in the boxContext 7.70
63% Box shareContext 59%
8% ConversionContext 14%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.80
11.29 Shots allowedContext 11.50
3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
2.20 BlocksContext 3.30
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11
75% Save rateContext 72%
46% PossessionIn forecast 50%
409 PassesContext 431
341 Accurate passesContext 364
83% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.67 Team ratingContext 6.79
11.71 FoulsContext 14.20
9.86 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60
1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Erzurumspor FK
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,450 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 56 · 10 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Eyüpspor2–02.2 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Alanyaspor0–01.1 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.6 xPts
  • L11 SepA · Besiktas0–30.7 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Konyaspor1–01.7 xPts
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,049 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 33 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–12.0 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Konyaspor0–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Genclerbirligi4–01.8 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Amed0–51.2 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Galatasaray2–31.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Erzurumspor FK Istanbul Basaksehir
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 9 May7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 9 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,049 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways4,450 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Erzurumspor FK Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eyüpspor (H) 2–0, 17 Oct
1M. Taşkıran(G)
15G. Giorbelidze 18N. Mujakić 22M. Yumlu 4A. Gerxhaliu 53O. Ovacıklı
65M. Rodríguez 42E. Owusu 6B. Baiye
20Miguel Cardoso 10E. Tozlu
Istanbul Basaksehir Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Gazişehir Gaziantep (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
16M. Şengezer(G)
38S. Kharebashvili 27O. Ba 23E. Bayram 33M. Karbownik
18J. Kałuziński 8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić 14E. Shomurodov 70A. Skov Olsen
17U. Bozok

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Erzurumspor FK Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Istanbul Basaksehir Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Erzurumspor FK · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
0.33
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentErzurumspor FKIstanbul Basaksehir
Konyaspor W 1–0 H D 0–0 A
Genclerbirligi D 1–1 A W 4–0 H
Galatasaray L 0–4 H L 2–3 H
Amed L 0–3 A L 0–5 A
Points4 of 12 · 1.00 per game4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Erzurumspor FKIstanbul BasaksehirForecast
Scored per game 0.631.50
Conceded per game 1.381.50
Match goals 2.003.00
Over 1.5 63%88%
Over 2.5 38%63%
Over 3.5 13%38%
Both teams scored 13%50%
Clean sheets 50%38%
Failed to score 50%25%
Games88
Erzurumspor FKIstanbul BasaksehirForecast
Scored per game 0.631.70
Conceded per game 1.381.30
Match goals 2.003.00
Over 1.5 63%90%
Over 2.5 38%70%
Over 3.5 13%30%
Both teams scored 13%50%
Clean sheets 50%40%
Failed to score 50%20%
Games810

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Erzurumspor FKIstanbul BasaksehirLeague
Corners
Corners won3.434.25
Corners conceded3.143.88
Match total6.578.139.12
Over 8.50% 0/750% 4/8
Over 9.50% 0/725% 2/8
Over 10.50% 0/713% 1/8
Cards
Cards1.382.50
Opponent cards2.131.88
Match total3.514.384.04
Over 3.550% 4/863% 5/8
Over 4.550% 4/838% 3/8
Erzurumspor FKIstanbul BasaksehirLeague
Corners
Corners won3.433.90
Corners conceded3.144.20
Match total6.578.109.12
Over 8.50% 0/750% 5/10
Over 9.50% 0/720% 2/10
Over 10.50% 0/710% 1/10
Cards
Cards1.382.40
Opponent cards2.131.90
Match total3.514.304.04
Over 3.550% 4/870% 7/10
Over 4.550% 4/830% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir8 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
1 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 3 61-75
2 3 76-90
Erzurumspor FK8 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 1 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 61-75
2 76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
5 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 4 46-60
3 3 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Fenerbahce Kasimpasa May 1613:00 Goztepe Amed May 1613:00 Alanyaspor Galatasaray May 1613:00 Rizespor Besiktas May 1613:00 Erzurumspor FK Istanbul Basaksehir May 1613:00 Gazişehir Gaziantep Samsunspor May 1613:00 Eyüpspor Konyaspor May 1613:00 Çorum FK Genclerbirligi May 1613:00 Kocaelispor Trabzonspor May 1613:00