Fenerbahce vs Nice – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 17:45 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 34th · 0 pts · 1 played L

2–1Full time

Nice 23rd · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 39). Fenerbahce had 4 days of rest, Nice 4.2 and had to travel 1,801 km.

Away travel1,801 kmRest days4 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

Fenerbahce59%

Draw22%

Nice18%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.02

Fenerbahce57%

Draw24%

Nice19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.97

Fenerbahce59%

Draw23%

Nice19%

Expected goals 1.95 – 1.02

Fenerbahce51%

Draw25%

Nice24%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.14

Fenerbahce58%

Draw24%

Nice19%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.98

Over 2.5 58% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

No weather data yet

Referee · SerbiaSrdan Jovanovic

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 3

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Nice

61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

75 AttackIn forecast 26

53 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Nice

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.83 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

0.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.53 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.50 ShotsContext 12.30

5.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

32% On target shareContext 31%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

50% Box shareContext 61%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.00

8.80 Shots allowedContext 12.90

2.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.88 BlocksContext 3.80

1.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

81% Save rateContext 64%

61% PossessionIn forecast 50%

496 PassesContext 444

427 Accurate passesContext 376

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.84

13.60 FoulsContext 12.10

13.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,348 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,801 km2,089 km in 14d

Schedule load40%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	High · 40
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Sep	4.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,801 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,348 km	2,089 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

4-3-3

31Ederson(G)

3A. Brown 24J. Oosterwolde 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

21Marco Asensio 5İ. Yüksek 94Talisca

9M. Aktürkoğlu 19Y. En-Nesyri 45D. Nene

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

4-3-3

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 28A. Bah 92J. Clauss

8M. Sanson 24C. Vanhoutte 20T. Louchet

7J. Boga 90Kevin Carlos 47Tiago Gouveia

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Nice-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home No home games yet this season.

Nice · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	3.00	2.00
Match goals	4.00	3.00	3.00
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	58%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Fenerbahce	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.63	1.14
Conceded per game	1.00	1.71
Match goals	2.63	2.86	3.00
Over 1.5	75%	71%
Over 2.5	50%	57%	58%
Over 3.5	50%	43%
Both teams scored	63%	71%	56%
Clean sheets	38%	14%
Failed to score	13%	14%
Games	8	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.00
Corners conceded	5.00	5.00
Match total	11.00	8.00	9.28
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	0.00
Opponent cards	2.00	5.00
Match total	5.00	5.00	4.50
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Fenerbahce	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.43	5.33
Corners conceded	3.86	4.11
Match total	8.29	9.44	9.28
Over 8.5	29% 2/7	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.90
Opponent cards	3.60	2.00
Match total	6.20	3.90	4.50
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Srdan Jovanovic Serbia · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.00league 4.39

Red cards0.00league 0.11

Cards 5+0%league 56%

Fouls15.0league 26.3

Penalties0.00league 0.22

Home wins33%league 39%

Fenerbahce

No previous matches with this referee.

Nice

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.