Ferencvarosi TC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Ferencvarosi TC
6th · 14 pts · 6 played
WWWDW
1–1Full time
Panathinaikos
17th · 10 pts · 6 played
LLWWD
Our take
Ferencvarosi TC were slight favourites.
Ferencvarosi TC were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 39). Ferencvarosi TC had 42.1 days of rest, Panathinaikos 42 and had to travel 1,125 km.
Away travel1,125 kmRest days42.1 · 42Matches / 14d0 · 0
Ferencvarosi TC49%
Draw25%
Panathinaikos26%
Ferencvarosi TC48%
Draw26%
Panathinaikos26%
Ferencvarosi TC48%
Draw26%
Panathinaikos26%
Ferencvarosi TC41%
Draw26%
Panathinaikos33%
Ferencvarosi TC49%
Draw26%
Panathinaikos26%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Budapest)
No weather data yet
RefereeMykola Balakin
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 53
Team strength
Ferencvarosi TCPanathinaikos
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
57
Current StrengthIn forecast
49
61
AttackIn forecast
48
56
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPanathinaikos
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Ferencvarosi TCPanathinaikos
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.83
ShotsContext
16.67
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.83
Shots in the boxContext
9.17
73%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.75
12.50
Shots allowedContext
11.17
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.83
BlocksContext
3.17
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
70%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
388
PassesContext
478
314
Accurate passesContext
406
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.93
15.50
FoulsContext
10.33
10.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
2.67
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
—
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
—
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
12.10
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
38%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
73%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.86
11.70
Shots allowedContext
8.70
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.44
BlocksContext
2.22
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
68%
Save rateContext
66%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
378
PassesContext
432
303
Accurate passesContext
348
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.83
16.30
FoulsContext
13.20
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ferencvarosi TC
Rest42.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Panathinaikos
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,125 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ferencvarosi TC |
Panathinaikos |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 42.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec | 42UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ferencvarosi TC
Confirmed XI
99D. Gróf(G)
22G. Szalai
28T. Raemaekers
27I. Cissé
20Cadu
36G. Kanichowsky
66Júlio Romão
25Č. Makreckis
16K. Zachariassen
10J. Levi
11B. Yusuf
Panathinaikos
Confirmed XI
40A. Lafont(G)
77G. Kyriakopoulos
5A. Touba
15S. Ingason
14E. Palmer-Brown
2D. Calabria
8R. Luz Sanches
11A. Bakasetas
4Pedro Chirivella
28F. Pellistri
19K. Świderski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ferencvarosi TC
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Panathinaikos
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ferencvarosi TC+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Panathinaikos-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Ferencvarosi TC · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Panathinaikos · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Ferencvarosi TC | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| Plzen | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Ferencvarosi TC | Panathinaikos | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.67 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Ferencvarosi TC | Panathinaikos | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.67 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 67% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 67% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ferencvarosi TC | Panathinaikos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 6.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 10.17 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.83 | 4.67 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Ferencvarosi TC | Panathinaikos | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.30 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 6.10 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mykola Balakin 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.02league 4.12
Red cards0.23league 0.21
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls23.0league 24.2
Penalties0.26league 0.36
Home wins30%league 49%
Ferencvarosi TCNo previous matches with this referee.
PanathinaikosNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ferencvarosi TC6 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Panathinaikos6 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Ferencvarosi TC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Panathinaikos10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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