Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen – 25 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 25 · 20:00 Groupama Aréna, Budapest

Ferencvarosi TC

1–1Full time

Plzen

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Plzen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 40). Ferencvarosi TC had ? days of rest, Plzen ? and had to travel 488 km.

Away travel488 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Ferencvarosi TC39%

Draw27%

Plzen34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.29

Ferencvarosi TC39%

Draw27%

Plzen34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.28

Ferencvarosi TC39%

Draw27%

Plzen34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.29

Ferencvarosi TC32%

Draw27%

Plzen41%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.45

Ferencvarosi TC39%

Draw27%

Plzen34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.28

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Budapest)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.20
Matches 41

Team strength

Ferencvarosi TC

Plzen

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

57 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

61 AttackIn forecast 54

56 DefenceIn forecast 43

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ferencvarosi TC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Plzen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ferencvarosi TC

Plzen

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.98 Goals minus xGContext +0.02

70% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.10 ShotsContext 15.44

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.67

31% On target shareContext 37%

8.78 Shots in the boxContext 10.78

64% Box shareContext 69%

15% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.90 Shots allowedContext 11.67

4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.63 BlocksContext 3.67

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

63% Save rateContext 66%

45% PossessionIn forecast 47%

350 PassesContext 385

273 Accurate passesContext 294

78% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.95 Team ratingContext 7.08

14.00 FoulsContext 12.44

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.78

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ferencvarosi TC

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Plzen

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel488 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	488 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ferencvarosi TC Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

90D. Dibusz(G)

27I. Cissé 28T. Raemaekers 3S. Gartenmann

23B. Ötvös

47C. O'Dowda 5N. Keïta 64A. Tóth 25Č. Makreckis

19B. Varga 30Z. Gruber

Plzen Confirmed XI

3-5-2

23M. Jedlička(G)

21V. Jemelka 40S. Dweh 22J. Paluska

14Merchas Doski 18T. Ladra 6L. Červ 19C. Souaré 99Amar Memić

17R. Durosinmi 11M. Vydra

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ferencvarosi TC Absences are shown before kick-off

Plzen Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ferencvarosi TC+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Plzen+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Ferencvarosi TC · Home No home games yet this season.

Plzen · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Ferencvarosi TC wins0 draws1 Plzen wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored0% Clean sheets50% · 50%

20 Feb 2025Plzen3–0Ferencvarosi TC
13 Feb 2025Ferencvarosi TC1–0Plzen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.70
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	51%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.70
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	51%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.18
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.55
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Ferencvarosi TC	Plzen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	5.88
Corners conceded	4.30	5.50
Match total	8.50	11.38	9.18
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	2.20	1.90
Match total	4.10	3.40	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 41 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.37league 4.55

Red cards0.22league 0.00

Cards 5+29%league 55%

Fouls22.3league 25.2

Penalties0.20league 0.18

Home wins44%league 45%

Ferencvarosi TC

No previous matches with this referee.

Plzen

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.